Preseason Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#22
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.7#34
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.2% 7.3% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 14.6% 14.9% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 29.2% 29.7% 4.9%
Top 6 Seed 42.6% 43.2% 8.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.9% 69.6% 26.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.8% 65.5% 24.0%
Average Seed 5.6 5.6 7.6
.500 or above 85.3% 86.0% 47.1%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 77.1% 45.2%
Conference Champion 15.2% 15.4% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.5% 7.7%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 3.0%
First Round67.3% 68.0% 24.4%
Second Round47.3% 47.8% 12.5%
Sweet Sixteen25.7% 26.1% 4.8%
Elite Eight13.1% 13.3% 1.5%
Final Four6.4% 6.5% 0.5%
Championship Game3.0% 3.1% 0.3%
National Champion1.4% 1.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 210 - 10
Quad 35 - 116 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 276   Loyola Maryland W 87-64 98%    
  Nov 12, 2021 237   Brown W 84-64 97%    
  Nov 16, 2021 235   @ College of Charleston W 80-66 89%    
  Nov 20, 2021 5   Purdue L 73-76 39%    
  Nov 23, 2021 252   UNC Asheville W 90-68 97%    
  Dec 01, 2021 2   Michigan L 74-76 44%    
  Dec 05, 2021 60   @ Georgia Tech W 76-74 55%    
  Dec 11, 2021 217   Elon W 83-64 95%    
  Dec 14, 2021 109   Furman W 83-71 83%    
  Dec 18, 2021 3   UCLA L 71-75 38%    
  Dec 21, 2021 182   Appalachian St. W 80-63 92%    
  Dec 29, 2021 34   Virginia Tech W 77-72 64%    
  Jan 01, 2022 144   @ Boston College W 85-76 75%    
  Jan 05, 2022 45   @ Notre Dame W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 29   Virginia W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 60   Georgia Tech W 79-71 73%    
  Jan 18, 2022 85   @ Miami (FL) W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 103   @ Wake Forest W 78-72 67%    
  Jan 26, 2022 144   Boston College W 88-73 88%    
  Jan 29, 2022 59   North Carolina St. W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 31, 2022 27   @ Louisville L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 10   Duke W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 08, 2022 55   @ Clemson W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 18   Florida St. W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 16, 2022 117   Pittsburgh W 83-70 84%    
  Feb 19, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 21, 2022 27   Louisville W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 26, 2022 59   @ North Carolina St. W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 28, 2022 44   Syracuse W 82-76 68%    
  Mar 05, 2022 10   @ Duke L 75-80 34%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 4.1 3.7 2.2 0.7 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.0 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.0 3.9 5.4 6.7 8.0 9.0 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.2 7.7 5.9 4.1 2.2 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 99.5% 2.2    2.1 0.1
18-2 90.4% 3.7    3.0 0.6 0.0
17-3 69.7% 4.1    2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 38.9% 3.0    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
15-5 14.6% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 9.9 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 65.0% 35.0% 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 50.3% 49.7% 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.1% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.9% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 2.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.7% 99.9% 24.8% 75.0% 3.1 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 9.2% 99.7% 18.2% 81.5% 4.3 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 10.0% 98.5% 11.4% 87.1% 5.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.3%
13-7 10.2% 95.2% 8.8% 86.4% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 94.7%
12-8 9.8% 87.0% 5.2% 81.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 86.2%
11-9 9.0% 68.0% 3.1% 64.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 67.0%
10-10 8.0% 43.8% 1.9% 41.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.5 42.7%
9-11 6.7% 18.5% 1.3% 17.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.5 17.4%
8-12 5.4% 6.3% 0.6% 5.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 5.6%
7-13 3.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.6%
6-14 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0%
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 68.9% 11.8% 57.1% 5.6 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.5 4.8 4.0 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1 64.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 95.9 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.1 16.9