IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.5	#314
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.5	#296
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.1	#320

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.5	#284

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.3%	2.1%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.1	14.9

.500 or above	4.7%	21.5%	3.7%
.500 or above in Conference	8.8%	26.0%	7.8%
Conference Champion	0.2%	1.2%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	35.4%	14.4%	36.6%

First Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
First Round	0.3%	2.0%	0.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 5	0 - 9
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 17
Quad 4	6 - 5	8 - 23

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	95	@ Washington	L	63-80	5%
Nov 12, 2021	30	@ Indiana	L	54-78	2%
Nov 18, 2021	84	@ Missouri	L	59-77	6%
Nov 21, 2021	197	Boston University	L	63-70	28%
Nov 27, 2021	78	@ Marquette	L	58-77	6%
Dec 01, 2021	330	Eastern Illinois	W	72-67	68%
Dec 04, 2021	87	@ Dayton	L	56-74	7%
Dec 13, 2021	357	@ Chicago St.	W	75-65	80%
Dec 19, 2021	253	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	65-71	30%
Dec 22, 2021	176	Indiana St.	L	64-69	33%
Dec 28, 2021	199	Ball St.	L	69-73	38%
Jan 01, 2022	128	@ Akron	L	62-76	12%
Jan 04, 2022	83	Buffalo	L	69-81	16%
Jan 08, 2022	114	@ Toledo	L	64-79	11%
Jan 11, 2022	132	@ Kent St.	L	64-78	13%
Jan 15, 2022	300	Eastern Michigan	W	68-66	57%
Jan 18, 2022	150	Bowling Green	L	69-76	29%
Jan 22, 2022	152	@ Miami (OH)	L	61-73	16%
Jan 25, 2022	91	@ Ohio	L	62-80	8%
Jan 29, 2022	279	Central Michigan	W	75-74	52%
Feb 01, 2022	284	@ Western Michigan	L	65-70	35%
Feb 05, 2022	150	@ Bowling Green	L	66-79	15%
Feb 08, 2022	128	Akron	L	65-73	26%
Feb 12, 2022	114	Toledo	L	67-76	23%
Feb 15, 2022	199	@ Ball St.	L	66-76	22%
Feb 19, 2022	152	Miami (OH)	L	64-70	31%
Feb 22, 2022	300	@ Eastern Michigan	L	65-69	37%
Feb 26, 2022	83	@ Buffalo	L	66-84	8%
Mar 01, 2022	132	Kent St.	L	67-75	27%
Mar 04, 2022	91	Ohio	L	65-77	18%
Projected Record						8 - 22	5 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.5	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0						0.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0							1.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0								2.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.1	1.4	0.8	0.1										3.7	6th
7th							0.1	0.6	1.8	2.1	0.9	0.1											5.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.2	2.9	2.8	1.1	0.2	0.0											8.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	2.3	4.4	3.6	1.2	0.2	0.0												12.2	9th
10th			0.1	1.5	4.3	5.7	4.0	1.3	0.1	0.0													17.0	10th
11th		0.8	3.8	6.8	6.5	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0														22.1	11th
12th	3.9	7.4	7.5	4.6	1.8	0.4	0.0	0.0															25.7	12th

Total	3.9	8.2	11.5	13.0	13.0	11.8	10.5	8.5	6.2	4.6	3.3	2.3	1.4	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	68.3%	0.0		0.0
17-3	73.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-4	51.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-5	19.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	4.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.3%	0.0				0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.2%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%		70.0%	70.0%		11.0											0.0		0.0					0.0
18-2	0.0%		17.1%	17.1%		12.0													0.0					0.0
17-3	0.1%		33.3%	29.0%	4.3%	12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		6.1%
16-4	0.2%		20.0%	20.0%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-5	0.3%		8.8%	8.8%		13.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
14-6	0.5%		8.9%	8.9%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.4
13-7	0.8%		4.3%	4.3%		14.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8
12-8	1.4%		2.6%	2.6%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4
11-9	2.3%		2.1%	2.1%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3
10-10	3.3%		1.5%	1.5%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.2
9-11	4.6%		0.8%	0.8%		15.9																0.0	0.0	4.6
8-12	6.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
7-13	8.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
6-14	10.5%																							10.5
5-15	11.8%																							11.8
4-16	13.0%																							13.0
3-17	13.0%																							13.0
2-18	11.5%																							11.5
1-19	8.2%																							8.2
0-20	3.9%																							3.9

Total	100%		0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	14.6											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	99.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.9%