IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.6	#107
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.9	#131
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.1	#88

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.5	#130

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.1%	1.2%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	2.3%	2.6%	0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	18.1%	20.1%	5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	7.5%	8.7%	1.0%
Average Seed	10.3	10.2	12.1

.500 or above	62.6%	67.8%	31.1%
.500 or above in Conference	70.1%	73.8%	48.0%
Conference Champion	13.1%	14.6%	4.3%
Last Place in Conference	4.2%	3.1%	10.8%

First Four	2.6%	2.8%	0.8%
First Round	16.8%	18.7%	5.6%
Second Round	6.2%	7.0%	1.3%
Sweet Sixteen	2.0%	2.3%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.7%	0.8%	0.1%
Final Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 85.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	2 - 3	3 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 4	9 - 11
Quad 4	7 - 1	15 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	230	Nicholls St.	W	84-73	86%
Nov 11, 2021	116	Vermont	W	73-69	64%
Nov 17, 2021	17	@ Arkansas	L	73-85	14%
Nov 27, 2021	28	@ St. Bonaventure	L	64-75	18%
Dec 01, 2021	157	@ Bradley	W	71-70	54%
Dec 05, 2021	57	Richmond	L	74-76	45%
Dec 14, 2021	262	Jackson St.	W	77-64	86%
Dec 18, 2021	118	@ Marshall	L	79-81	43%
Dec 22, 2021	110	Liberty	W	68-67	50%
Jan 02, 2022	198	Evansville	W	72-63	78%
Jan 05, 2022	189	Valparaiso	W	77-68	76%
Jan 08, 2022	96	@ Missouri St.	L	73-77	37%
Jan 11, 2022	176	Indiana St.	W	75-67	73%
Jan 15, 2022	140	@ Southern Illinois	L	70-71	50%
Jan 19, 2022	189	@ Valparaiso	W	74-71	59%
Jan 22, 2022	73	Drake	W	73-72	50%
Jan 26, 2022	198	@ Evansville	W	69-66	60%
Jan 29, 2022	223	Illinois St.	W	79-68	81%
Feb 02, 2022	157	Bradley	W	74-67	71%
Feb 05, 2022	73	@ Drake	L	69-75	32%
Feb 09, 2022	140	Southern Illinois	W	73-67	68%
Feb 13, 2022	46	@ Loyola Chicago	L	62-71	25%
Feb 15, 2022	223	@ Illinois St.	W	76-71	65%
Feb 20, 2022	96	Missouri St.	W	76-74	57%
Feb 23, 2022	176	@ Indiana St.	W	72-70	57%
Feb 26, 2022	46	Loyola Chicago	L	65-68	42%
Projected Record						14 - 12	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.2	2.7	3.8	2.9	1.7	0.6		13.1	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	2.9	4.9	4.0	2.0	0.4				15.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.6	4.3	5.3	3.0	0.8	0.0					15.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.1	5.1	4.7	1.8	0.3	0.0						14.3	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.4	4.7	3.6	0.8	0.1								12.0	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.3	4.0	2.6	0.5	0.0									9.8	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	2.1	3.4	1.7	0.3	0.0										8.0	7th
8th				0.1	0.6	1.9	2.3	1.1	0.2												6.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.3	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0												3.9	9th
10th	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0													2.5	10th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.4	2.5	3.8	5.3	7.2	8.5	9.9	10.8	10.7	10.4	9.4	7.6	5.8	3.3	1.7	0.6			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	100.0%	1.7		1.7	0.1
16-2	87.8%	2.9		2.4	0.5	0.0
15-3	64.7%	3.8		2.3	1.3	0.2
14-4	35.4%	2.7		1.1	1.2	0.3	0.0
13-5	13.1%	1.2		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.1%	13.1		8.4	3.7	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		96.7%	60.9%	35.7%	4.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		91.5%
17-1	1.7%		91.3%	51.0%	40.3%	6.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		82.2%
16-2	3.3%		79.2%	41.5%	37.7%	8.4		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.7		64.4%
15-3	5.8%		63.1%	31.8%	31.2%	10.0			0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0			2.1		45.8%
14-4	7.6%		43.6%	24.7%	18.9%	11.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.9	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.3		25.1%
13-5	9.4%		26.5%	17.5%	9.1%	11.6						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	6.9		11.0%
12-6	10.4%		15.3%	12.8%	2.6%	12.3									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0		8.8		2.9%
11-7	10.7%		9.5%	8.4%	1.2%	12.8											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.7		1.3%
10-8	10.8%		5.9%	5.6%	0.2%	13.3											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.2		0.2%
9-9	9.9%		3.7%	3.6%	0.1%	14.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	9.5		0.1%
8-10	8.5%		2.2%	2.2%		14.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	8.3
7-11	7.2%		1.0%	1.0%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	7.1
6-12	5.3%		0.6%	0.6%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	5.3
5-13	3.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
4-14	2.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
3-15	1.4%																							1.4
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		18.1%	11.4%	6.7%	10.3		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.8	1.5	2.0	3.1	4.3	2.1	0.7	0.4	0.2	81.9		7.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.7	63.1	8.8	23.8	4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	2.7	26.9		46.2	26.9
Lose Out	0.0%