Preseason Rankings
Rutgers
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#50
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.8#218
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 10.1% 10.4% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 18.8% 19.2% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.5% 40.4% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.7% 38.5% 8.8%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.2
.500 or above 66.0% 67.2% 23.1%
.500 or above in Conference 39.3% 40.0% 11.9%
Conference Champion 3.1% 3.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 10.8% 30.6%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 0.8%
First Round38.0% 38.8% 8.5%
Second Round23.7% 24.3% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen10.9% 11.1% 1.9%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.1% 0.6%
Final Four2.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 13
Quad 33 - 112 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 297   Lehigh W 81-61 97%    
  Nov 13, 2021 234   Merrimack W 73-56 94%    
  Nov 16, 2021 293   NJIT W 78-58 96%    
  Nov 18, 2021 112   @ DePaul W 72-69 60%    
  Nov 22, 2021 292   Lafayette W 82-62 96%    
  Nov 27, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts W 76-72 62%    
  Nov 30, 2021 55   Clemson W 66-62 62%    
  Dec 03, 2021 8   @ Illinois L 68-77 23%    
  Dec 09, 2021 5   Purdue L 66-70 38%    
  Dec 12, 2021 41   @ Seton Hall L 66-70 37%    
  Dec 18, 2021 248   Rider W 79-61 93%    
  Dec 23, 2021 346   Central Connecticut St. W 86-59 99%    
  Dec 29, 2021 337   Maine W 75-50 98%    
  Jan 04, 2022 2   Michigan L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 08, 2022 75   Nebraska W 76-70 67%    
  Jan 11, 2022 53   @ Penn St. L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 16   @ Maryland L 62-69 29%    
  Jan 19, 2022 39   Iowa W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 25, 2022 16   Maryland L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 29, 2022 75   @ Nebraska L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 01, 2022 58   @ Northwestern L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 24   Michigan St. L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 09, 2022 12   Ohio St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 12, 2022 43   @ Wisconsin L 62-66 39%    
  Feb 16, 2022 8   Illinois L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 20, 2022 5   @ Purdue L 63-73 22%    
  Feb 23, 2022 2   @ Michigan L 63-74 19%    
  Feb 26, 2022 43   Wisconsin W 65-63 57%    
  Mar 02, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 64-69 34%    
  Mar 06, 2022 53   Penn St. W 73-69 62%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 3.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 3.0 0.8 0.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 9.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 9.1 13th
14th 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.2 14th
Total 0.4 1.4 2.8 4.6 6.0 7.7 8.8 9.4 9.7 9.7 8.8 7.9 6.8 5.2 4.1 2.9 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 90.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 77.2% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
16-4 47.5% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.1% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.7% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 2.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.9% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.1% 99.8% 11.0% 88.8% 4.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 5.2% 98.4% 7.8% 90.6% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.2%
12-8 6.8% 95.7% 4.0% 91.6% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 95.5%
11-9 7.9% 84.8% 2.5% 82.3% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 84.4%
10-10 8.8% 65.2% 1.5% 63.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 64.7%
9-11 9.7% 35.1% 1.0% 34.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.3 34.4%
8-12 9.7% 12.5% 0.5% 12.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.5 12.1%
7-13 9.4% 2.4% 0.1% 2.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2 2.2%
6-14 8.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.3%
5-15 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 7.7 0.0%
4-16 6.0% 6.0
3-17 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 39.5% 2.9% 36.6% 6.7 1.5 2.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 60.5 37.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0