Preseason Rankings
Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#79
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#191
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.8% 2.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 5.5% 5.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.0% 25.4% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.8% 17.2% 2.2%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 10.7
.500 or above 74.9% 75.9% 29.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.8% 74.6% 39.0%
Conference Champion 11.3% 11.5% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.2% 6.7%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 0.8%
First Round22.9% 23.3% 3.8%
Second Round11.0% 11.2% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 4.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 44 - 9
Quad 36 - 311 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 334   Central Arkansas W 87-66 98%    
  Nov 12, 2021 330   Eastern Illinois W 83-62 97%    
  Nov 16, 2021 11   @ Memphis L 68-79 16%    
  Nov 20, 2021 155   Mercer W 76-67 79%    
  Nov 23, 2021 223   Illinois St. W 76-66 81%    
  Nov 30, 2021 76   @ Boise St. L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 04, 2021 74   UAB W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 07, 2021 81   Belmont W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 11, 2021 144   Boston College W 79-71 74%    
  Dec 18, 2021 26   Auburn L 74-77 41%    
  Dec 22, 2021 73   Drake L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 30, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 02, 2022 57   Richmond W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 05, 2022 210   La Salle W 78-66 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 28   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-72 25%    
  Jan 11, 2022 87   @ Dayton L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 275   Fordham W 70-54 90%    
  Jan 23, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 26, 2022 238   George Washington W 79-65 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 162   @ Duquesne W 73-69 61%    
  Feb 02, 2022 169   @ George Mason W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 87   Dayton W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 08, 2022 210   @ La Salle W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 11, 2022 28   St. Bonaventure L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 19, 2022 98   @ Davidson L 66-68 46%    
  Feb 22, 2022 193   Saint Joseph's W 83-71 81%    
  Feb 25, 2022 57   @ Richmond L 70-75 34%    
  Mar 02, 2022 101   @ Rhode Island L 72-73 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 77   Virginia Commonwealth W 73-70 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 3.2 1.8 0.5 11.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.5 1.9 0.2 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.7 1.7 0.2 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.7 1.9 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 4.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.4 8.4 10.0 11.0 11.3 11.3 9.9 8.3 5.9 3.8 1.8 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.6% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 86.1% 3.2    2.3 0.9 0.0
15-3 56.9% 3.4    1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 22.4% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 6.6 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 99.6% 54.1% 45.5% 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
17-1 1.8% 97.4% 47.5% 49.9% 4.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1%
16-2 3.8% 92.2% 37.9% 54.3% 6.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 87.5%
15-3 5.9% 81.2% 28.1% 53.1% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 73.8%
14-4 8.3% 61.7% 21.1% 40.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 51.4%
13-5 9.9% 42.4% 14.4% 28.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 32.7%
12-6 11.3% 24.4% 9.1% 15.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.6 16.7%
11-7 11.3% 12.7% 6.1% 6.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.9 7.0%
10-8 11.0% 5.1% 3.0% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.4 2.2%
9-9 10.0% 2.3% 1.8% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.5%
8-10 8.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.1%
7-11 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0%
6-12 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
5-13 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.0% 9.8% 15.2% 8.9 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.6 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 75.0 16.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 38.2 55.5 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 48.8 51.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 65.0 17.5 17.5