IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Sam Houston St.
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.7	#196
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.5	#54
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.7	#198

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.0	#205

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.5%	15.9%	6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.8%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.8	12.9	14.2

.500 or above	42.9%	74.2%	38.2%
.500 or above in Conference	63.5%	82.9%	60.5%
Conference Champion	7.4%	16.6%	6.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.9%	0.1%	1.0%

First Four	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%
First Round	7.3%	15.5%	6.0%
Second Round	0.9%	2.8%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.9%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 13.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 3	13 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	75	@ Nebraska	L	73-85	13%
Nov 17, 2021	96	Missouri St.	L	74-78	35%
Nov 21, 2021	277	Arkansas Little Rock	W	75-71	65%
Nov 24, 2021	62	@ SMU	L	71-84	13%
Nov 29, 2021	7	@ Texas	L	65-86	4%
Dec 11, 2021	207	Texas San Antonio	W	81-80	51%
Dec 14, 2021	123	@ North Texas	L	64-72	26%
Dec 21, 2021	157	Bradley	L	71-73	43%
Dec 30, 2021	308	Lamar	W	80-70	78%
Jan 01, 2022	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	81-71	78%
Jan 06, 2022	185	@ Tarleton St.	L	68-72	38%
Jan 08, 2022	167	@ Abilene Christian	L	72-77	34%
Jan 13, 2022	308	@ Lamar	W	77-73	61%
Jan 15, 2022	153	Stephen F. Austin	W	77-76	51%
Jan 20, 2022	102	New Mexico St.	L	69-73	38%
Jan 22, 2022	142	Grand Canyon	L	72-73	48%
Jan 26, 2022	215	@ California Baptist	L	79-81	44%
Jan 29, 2022	179	@ Seattle	L	75-79	37%
Feb 03, 2022	303	Dixie St.	W	85-76	77%
Feb 05, 2022	209	Utah Valley	W	79-76	61%
Feb 12, 2022	357	@ Chicago St.	W	86-69	91%
Feb 17, 2022	167	Abilene Christian	W	75-74	53%
Feb 19, 2022	310	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	78-74	61%
Feb 24, 2022	153	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	74-80	33%
Feb 26, 2022	142	@ Grand Canyon	L	69-76	31%
Mar 03, 2022	185	Tarleton St.	W	71-69	57%
Projected Record						12 - 14	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.3	2.3	2.1	1.0	0.3		7.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.8	2.4	3.0	1.7	0.4	0.0			8.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	2.8	3.5	1.5	0.2	0.0				8.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.0	4.1	1.4	0.1						9.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.1	4.4	1.6	0.1							9.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	2.8	4.6	2.0	0.2								10.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	2.8	4.8	2.2	0.2	0.0								10.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.0	0.5	2.5	4.4	2.3	0.3	0.0									10.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.6	2.2	3.7	2.0	0.3											8.9	9th
10th				0.1	0.6	2.0	2.9	1.6	0.3	0.0											7.5	10th
11th			0.1	0.7	1.7	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.0												5.6	11th
12th		0.2	0.6	1.1	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0													3.2	12th
13th	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.4	13th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.9	3.3	4.9	6.7	8.5	10.0	10.8	11.0	10.5	9.5	7.8	5.9	4.2	2.5	1.0	0.3			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	99.2%	1.0		0.9	0.1	0.0
16-2	84.4%	2.1		1.5	0.5	0.0
15-3	55.3%	2.3		1.1	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
14-4	22.3%	1.3		0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.3%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.4%	7.4		4.2	2.3	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		70.0%	62.3%	7.7%	9.5				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		20.4%
17-1	1.0%		55.3%	49.6%	5.7%	11.8				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.5		11.4%
16-2	2.5%		39.7%	38.4%	1.3%	13.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.5		2.1%
15-3	4.2%		31.4%	30.8%	0.5%	13.5											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	2.9		0.8%
14-4	5.9%		21.7%	21.7%	0.0%	13.9											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0	4.6		0.1%
13-5	7.8%		15.3%	15.3%		14.4													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.1	6.6
12-6	9.5%		8.7%	8.7%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	8.7
11-7	10.5%		5.8%	5.8%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	9.9
10-8	11.0%		3.4%	3.4%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.2	10.6
9-9	10.8%		1.1%	1.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.7
8-10	10.0%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
7-11	8.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
6-12	6.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.7
5-13	4.9%																							4.9
4-14	3.3%																							3.3
3-15	1.9%																							1.9
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		7.5%	7.4%	0.1%	13.8				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.6	1.9	1.8	1.0	92.5		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%