Preseason Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#177
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.9#239
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#247
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 1.9% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 16.0
.500 or above 30.3% 31.3% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 17.7% 18.3% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 29.9% 28.9% 55.3%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round1.6% 1.7% 0.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 7
Quad 21 - 52 - 12
Quad 33 - 45 - 16
Quad 48 - 113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 350   Bethune-Cookman W 78-59 96%    
  Nov 13, 2021 245   Georgia Southern W 69-62 74%    
  Nov 15, 2021 286   N.C. A&T W 76-67 79%    
  Nov 19, 2021 26   Auburn L 66-79 13%    
  Nov 24, 2021 329   Hampton W 79-66 87%    
  Nov 29, 2021 144   @ Boston College L 70-75 33%    
  Dec 03, 2021 352   South Carolina St. W 83-62 96%    
  Dec 14, 2021 285   Austin Peay W 73-64 78%    
  Dec 18, 2021 33   Florida L 63-75 16%    
  Dec 22, 2021 38   BYU L 64-76 17%    
  Dec 29, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 86-59 99%    
  Jan 01, 2022 183   East Carolina W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 05, 2022 13   Houston L 58-70 16%    
  Jan 08, 2022 136   @ Tulane L 64-70 33%    
  Jan 12, 2022 62   @ SMU L 65-77 17%    
  Jan 15, 2022 68   Central Florida L 64-70 33%    
  Jan 18, 2022 13   @ Houston L 55-73 7%    
  Jan 22, 2022 120   Temple L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 26, 2022 62   SMU L 68-74 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 108   @ Tulsa L 61-69 27%    
  Feb 03, 2022 68   @ Central Florida L 61-73 18%    
  Feb 09, 2022 90   Cincinnati L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. L 60-73 16%    
  Feb 15, 2022 136   Tulane W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 108   Tulsa L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 23, 2022 183   @ East Carolina L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 90   @ Cincinnati L 66-75 23%    
  Mar 03, 2022 11   Memphis L 64-77 16%    
  Mar 06, 2022 120   @ Temple L 64-71 30%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.1 3.5 0.8 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 15.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.4 5.8 6.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 18.6 10th
11th 2.4 5.8 6.6 4.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 21.4 11th
Total 2.4 6.1 9.0 11.2 12.6 12.2 11.4 9.5 7.9 6.1 4.4 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 89.7% 0.0    0.0
16-2 86.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 52.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 26.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 73.1% 73.1% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.1%
17-1 0.0% 82.4% 30.9% 51.5% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.5%
16-2 0.1% 92.0% 23.9% 68.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.4%
15-3 0.3% 71.6% 15.1% 56.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 66.5%
14-4 0.6% 57.4% 14.9% 42.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 50.0%
13-5 1.1% 28.0% 6.3% 21.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 23.2%
12-6 1.9% 14.2% 4.8% 9.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6 9.9%
11-7 3.1% 7.2% 3.8% 3.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.5%
10-8 4.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.5%
9-9 6.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.1%
8-10 7.9% 0.8% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
7-11 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
6-12 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
5-13 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-14 12.6% 12.6
3-15 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.2
2-16 9.0% 9.0
1-17 6.1% 6.1
0-18 2.4% 2.4
Total 100% 1.8% 0.7% 1.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2 1.1%