IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.9	#268
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.6	#160
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.7	#255

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.2	#273

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.5%	9.0%	2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.2	15.1

.500 or above	40.7%	76.8%	37.3%
.500 or above in Conference	53.8%	79.1%	51.4%
Conference Champion	3.2%	9.6%	2.6%
Last Place in Conference	5.6%	1.0%	6.0%

First Four	0.8%	0.7%	0.8%
First Round	3.1%	8.8%	2.6%
Second Round	0.2%	0.8%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 10
Quad 4	12 - 7	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	96	@ Missouri St.	L	67-81	9%
Nov 13, 2021	281	Youngstown St.	W	75-71	63%
Nov 19, 2021	194	Arkansas St.	L	73-74	46%
Nov 26, 2021	345	@ Incarnate Word	W	72-67	65%
Nov 27, 2021	307	Portland	W	78-76	58%
Nov 28, 2021	204	Montana St.	L	71-75	37%
Dec 08, 2021	198	Evansville	L	66-67	47%
Dec 11, 2021	247	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	74-78	38%
Dec 15, 2021	140	@ Southern Illinois	L	63-74	19%
Dec 18, 2021	147	@ Pepperdine	L	72-82	20%
Dec 21, 2021	215	@ California Baptist	L	74-80	31%
Dec 30, 2021	125	@ Murray St.	L	64-76	17%
Jan 01, 2022	285	Austin Peay	W	74-70	62%
Jan 06, 2022	81	@ Belmont	L	69-85	11%
Jan 08, 2022	289	@ Tennessee St.	L	74-76	45%
Jan 13, 2022	301	Tennessee Tech	W	76-71	65%
Jan 15, 2022	328	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	72-71	55%
Jan 20, 2022	289	Tennessee St.	W	77-73	63%
Jan 22, 2022	330	@ Eastern Illinois	W	75-73	57%
Jan 27, 2022	158	Morehead St.	L	67-70	39%
Jan 29, 2022	328	SIU Edwardsville	W	75-68	72%
Feb 03, 2022	349	@ Tennessee Martin	W	77-70	70%
Feb 05, 2022	330	Eastern Illinois	W	78-70	74%
Feb 10, 2022	285	@ Austin Peay	L	71-73	43%
Feb 12, 2022	81	Belmont	L	72-82	23%
Feb 17, 2022	301	@ Tennessee Tech	L	73-74	46%
Feb 19, 2022	158	@ Morehead St.	L	64-73	23%
Feb 24, 2022	349	Tennessee Martin	W	80-67	85%
Feb 26, 2022	125	Murray St.	L	67-73	32%
Projected Record						13 - 16	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.1		3.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.2	2.4	2.5	1.2	0.2				7.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.0	3.1	4.3	2.9	0.8	0.1					12.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.6	5.4	5.2	2.3	0.3	0.0						16.3	4th
5th							0.0	0.8	3.7	5.9	3.9	1.2	0.1	0.0							15.6	5th
6th						0.1	1.1	4.3	5.3	2.6	0.5	0.0									13.9	6th
7th					0.1	1.4	4.2	4.2	1.6	0.2	0.0										11.8	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	1.7	3.4	2.9	0.9	0.1	0.0											9.3	8th
9th		0.0	0.5	1.6	2.4	1.4	0.3	0.0													6.4	9th
10th	0.1	0.6	1.1	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0														3.2	10th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.6	2.8	4.7	6.4	8.6	10.2	11.1	11.5	10.9	9.8	8.0	5.9	3.9	2.3	1.1	0.4	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	80.4%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.0
15-3	43.3%	1.0		0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-4	16.6%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	3.4%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0		0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.2%	3.2		1.7	1.1	0.3	0.1		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		65.3%	65.3%		11.0						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
17-1	0.4%		44.6%	42.9%	1.7%	13.1										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2		2.9%
16-2	1.1%		36.0%	35.7%	0.2%	13.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.7		0.3%
15-3	2.3%		21.8%	21.8%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	1.8
14-4	3.9%		14.4%	14.4%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	3.4
13-5	5.9%		10.7%	10.7%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	5.3
12-6	8.0%		6.3%	6.3%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	7.5
11-7	9.8%		3.4%	3.4%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.4
10-8	10.9%		1.4%	1.4%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.7
9-9	11.5%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.4
8-10	11.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
7-11	10.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
6-12	8.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.6
5-13	6.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
4-14	4.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
3-15	2.8%																							2.8
2-16	1.6%																							1.6
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		3.5%	3.5%	0.0%	14.9						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.0	1.4	96.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	6.5					25.9	25.9	22.2	25.9
Lose Out	0.1%