Preseason Rankings
St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#28
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.1#332
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.8% 3.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 8.1% 8.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 17.6% 18.2% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 26.1% 27.0% 4.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.6% 62.0% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.3% 44.8% 13.2%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 9.4
.500 or above 95.9% 96.6% 78.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 95.1% 81.6%
Conference Champion 39.8% 40.8% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four5.1% 5.2% 2.8%
First Round58.1% 59.5% 22.9%
Second Round36.7% 37.7% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen18.2% 18.8% 3.5%
Elite Eight8.9% 9.2% 1.5%
Final Four4.2% 4.4% 0.4%
Championship Game1.9% 2.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 24 - 26 - 5
Quad 39 - 215 - 7
Quad 48 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 227   Siena W 74-55 96%    
  Nov 14, 2021 265   Canisius W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 18, 2021 76   Boise St. W 71-66 68%    
  Nov 27, 2021 107   Northern Iowa W 75-64 82%    
  Dec 01, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 88-61 99%    
  Dec 04, 2021 83   Buffalo W 78-69 77%    
  Dec 08, 2021 276   Loyola Maryland W 78-56 96%    
  Dec 11, 2021 25   Connecticut L 64-65 48%    
  Dec 17, 2021 34   Virginia Tech W 66-65 52%    
  Dec 22, 2021 134   @ Northeastern W 69-62 72%    
  Dec 30, 2021 238   @ George Washington W 75-61 87%    
  Jan 02, 2022 87   @ Dayton W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 05, 2022 275   Fordham W 69-48 96%    
  Jan 08, 2022 79   Saint Louis W 72-63 75%    
  Jan 11, 2022 210   @ La Salle W 74-62 82%    
  Jan 14, 2022 77   Virginia Commonwealth W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 21, 2022 162   @ Duquesne W 71-62 76%    
  Jan 26, 2022 169   @ George Mason W 71-62 77%    
  Jan 29, 2022 193   Saint Joseph's W 81-64 91%    
  Feb 01, 2022 98   Davidson W 69-59 78%    
  Feb 04, 2022 57   @ Richmond W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 11, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 16, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 77-65 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 162   Duquesne W 74-59 88%    
  Feb 22, 2022 101   Rhode Island W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 26, 2022 193   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-67 81%    
  Mar 01, 2022 77   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 04, 2022 57   Richmond W 71-65 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.5 8.4 11.7 10.2 5.3 39.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.9 7.2 5.4 1.8 0.1 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 2.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.3 0.1 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.3 7.3 9.5 11.7 13.6 14.3 13.5 10.3 5.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.3    5.3
17-1 99.3% 10.2    9.5 0.7
16-2 86.9% 11.7    8.7 2.8 0.2
15-3 58.6% 8.4    4.4 3.4 0.6 0.0
14-4 26.0% 3.5    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.8% 39.8 28.9 8.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.3% 99.8% 69.7% 30.1% 2.3 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
17-1 10.3% 98.9% 58.5% 40.4% 3.8 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.4%
16-2 13.5% 94.4% 46.9% 47.5% 6.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 89.5%
15-3 14.3% 85.5% 36.6% 48.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 77.0%
14-4 13.6% 70.3% 29.6% 40.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.0 57.8%
13-5 11.7% 49.0% 21.5% 27.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.0 35.0%
12-6 9.5% 30.1% 14.0% 16.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.6 18.7%
11-7 7.3% 17.2% 9.9% 7.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.0 8.1%
10-8 5.3% 9.1% 6.1% 3.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 3.3%
9-9 3.9% 4.9% 3.9% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 1.1%
8-10 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1%
7-11 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 60.6% 30.4% 30.1% 7.1 3.8 4.3 4.2 5.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.4 5.4 6.4 7.2 5.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 39.4 43.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.5 61.2 30.7 6.2 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 99.9% 1.9 39.2 36.0 17.3 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.0 37.2 37.0 19.7 4.9 1.3