Preseason Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#29
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace54.2#358
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.8% 4.1% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 8.7% 9.3% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 19.7% 20.8% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 30.9% 32.5% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.0% 60.4% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.6% 56.0% 20.7%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 8.2
.500 or above 84.3% 86.6% 50.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 72.6% 40.9%
Conference Champion 11.4% 12.0% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.6% 6.8%
First Four3.7% 3.8% 3.5%
First Round56.1% 58.4% 20.8%
Second Round37.7% 39.4% 11.1%
Sweet Sixteen19.3% 20.3% 4.4%
Elite Eight9.6% 10.2% 1.5%
Final Four4.5% 4.7% 0.6%
Championship Game2.0% 2.2% 0.3%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 93.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 10
Quad 35 - 114 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 184   Navy W 66-50 94%    
  Nov 12, 2021 264   Radford W 67-46 97%    
  Nov 16, 2021 13   @ Houston L 53-59 31%    
  Nov 19, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 79-52 99%    
  Nov 22, 2021 133   Georgia W 70-60 80%    
  Nov 26, 2021 297   Lehigh W 73-50 97%    
  Nov 29, 2021 39   Iowa W 66-62 64%    
  Dec 03, 2021 117   Pittsburgh W 66-54 83%    
  Dec 07, 2021 172   @ James Madison W 69-60 78%    
  Dec 18, 2021 323   Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-52 98%    
  Dec 22, 2021 55   Clemson W 59-53 69%    
  Jan 01, 2022 44   @ Syracuse L 61-62 46%    
  Jan 04, 2022 55   @ Clemson W 56-55 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 22   @ North Carolina L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 12, 2022 34   Virginia Tech W 60-56 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 103   Wake Forest W 65-54 80%    
  Jan 19, 2022 117   @ Pittsburgh W 63-57 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 59   @ North Carolina St. W 60-59 51%    
  Jan 24, 2022 27   Louisville W 60-57 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 45   @ Notre Dame L 61-62 47%    
  Feb 01, 2022 144   Boston College W 70-56 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 85   Miami (FL) W 65-56 76%    
  Feb 07, 2022 10   @ Duke L 58-64 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 60   Georgia Tech W 62-56 69%    
  Feb 14, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 57-59 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 85   @ Miami (FL) W 62-59 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 10   Duke L 61-62 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 18   Florida St. W 62-60 55%    
  Mar 05, 2022 27   @ Louisville L 57-60 40%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 1.5 0.4 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.3 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.7 0.8 0.1 9.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.0 3.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 3.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.1 0.8 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.1 1.0 0.1 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.1 6.8 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.0 9.7 9.0 7.8 6.3 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.7% 1.5    1.4 0.1 0.0
18-2 90.3% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 69.9% 3.2    2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
16-4 38.2% 2.4    1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 15.0% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 7.2 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 60.9% 39.1% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 49.4% 50.6% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.8% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.6% 99.9% 29.0% 71.0% 2.6 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 6.3% 99.9% 23.4% 76.5% 3.6 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 7.8% 99.2% 18.9% 80.3% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
14-6 9.0% 96.4% 13.4% 83.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 95.8%
13-7 9.7% 91.2% 8.0% 83.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 90.4%
12-8 10.0% 78.0% 4.6% 73.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 76.9%
11-9 9.9% 55.9% 2.8% 53.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.4 54.7%
10-10 8.8% 32.3% 1.6% 30.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 5.9 31.2%
9-11 8.0% 11.1% 0.9% 10.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.1 10.3%
8-12 6.8% 2.6% 0.6% 1.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6 1.9%
7-13 5.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.2%
6-14 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 58.0% 9.4% 48.6% 6.2 3.8 4.9 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 42.0 53.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.3 11.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 69.5 30.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 64.9 35.1