Preseason Rankings
Yale
Ivy League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#126
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#169
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#157
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.2% 34.9% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.0 12.6 13.8
.500 or above 77.5% 87.8% 62.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 91.7% 80.4%
Conference Champion 38.3% 45.8% 27.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.0% 3.7%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round27.9% 34.6% 18.3%
Second Round5.5% 7.6% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.5% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 412 - 217 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 119   Massachusetts W 78-76 59%    
  Nov 14, 2021 41   @ Seton Hall L 66-77 15%    
  Nov 16, 2021 227   @ Siena W 71-68 62%    
  Nov 19, 2021 116   @ Vermont L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 23, 2021 122   Southern Utah L 76-77 50%    
  Nov 28, 2021 188   Stony Brook W 73-66 72%    
  Dec 01, 2021 297   Lehigh W 81-68 86%    
  Dec 04, 2021 26   @ Auburn L 70-83 15%    
  Dec 07, 2021 244   Albany W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 12, 2021 146   Iona W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 14, 2021 216   Monmouth W 83-74 76%    
  Dec 23, 2021 332   Howard W 88-71 91%    
  Dec 28, 2021 49   @ St. Mary's L 62-72 21%    
  Jan 02, 2022 315   Columbia W 79-65 88%    
  Jan 07, 2022 270   @ Dartmouth W 74-68 68%    
  Jan 09, 2022 160   @ Harvard L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 290   Cornell W 80-67 85%    
  Jan 17, 2022 237   @ Brown W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 187   @ Penn W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 168   @ Princeton L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 04, 2022 270   Dartmouth W 77-65 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 160   Harvard W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 315   @ Columbia W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 18, 2022 187   Penn W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 168   Princeton W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 290   @ Cornell W 77-70 70%    
  Mar 05, 2022 237   Brown W 75-65 78%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.8 8.9 11.4 9.2 4.4 38.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 5.5 8.5 5.5 1.4 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.2 5.9 2.2 0.2 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.3 0.2 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.6 8.2 10.4 13.0 14.4 14.6 12.7 9.2 4.4 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 4.4    4.4
13-1 100.0% 9.2    8.7 0.5
12-2 89.1% 11.4    8.7 2.6 0.0
11-3 61.0% 8.9    4.8 3.6 0.5 0.0
10-4 26.1% 3.8    1.1 1.8 0.8 0.1
9-5 5.3% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 38.3% 38.3 27.7 8.7 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 4.4% 100.0% 100.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1
13-1 9.2% 96.1% 94.9% 1.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.4 24.0%
12-2 12.7% 70.1% 68.4% 1.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.5 0.3 3.8 5.2%
11-3 14.6% 33.4% 32.6% 0.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.5 9.7 1.2%
10-4 14.4% 7.6% 7.4% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 13.4 0.2%
9-5 13.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
8-6 10.4% 10.4
7-7 8.2% 8.2
6-8 5.6% 5.6
5-9 3.5% 3.5
4-10 2.2% 2.2
3-11 1.0% 1.0
2-12 0.5% 0.5
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 28.2% 27.7% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.5 4.5 7.9 6.8 4.2 1.1 71.8 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.4 6.6 20.9 30.9 22.6 9.5 6.3 3.2