Southern Utah
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#144
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#173
Pace72.9#88
Improvement+3.0#18

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#116
First Shot-1.9#234
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#12
Layup/Dunks+0.6#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#211
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+2.2#18

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#173
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#248
Layups/Dunks-0.8#222
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
Freethrows+2.6#45
Improvement+0.8#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 23.1% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 89.3% 94.5% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 97.1% 88.4%
Conference Champion 27.4% 34.9% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.0%
First Round20.3% 22.8% 16.5%
Second Round2.2% 2.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 301   @ Dixie St. L 76-83 74%     0 - 1 -11.8 -6.0 -5.3
  Nov 15, 2021 43   @ St. Mary's L 51-70 15%     0 - 2 -5.9 -12.4 +6.5
  Nov 18, 2021 129   @ California L 68-75 2OT 36%     0 - 3 -1.5 -8.4 +7.8
  Nov 23, 2021 113   Yale W 88-85 OT 43%     1 - 3 +6.9 +5.8 +0.6
  Nov 24, 2021 220   Bowling Green W 87-73 67%     2 - 3 +11.3 +6.0 +4.5
  Dec 02, 2021 237   @ Eastern Washington W 80-77 60%    
  Dec 04, 2021 350   @ Idaho W 82-68 90%    
  Dec 08, 2021 153   Utah Valley W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 18, 2021 16   @ Michigan L 63-79 7%    
  Dec 22, 2021 301   Dixie St. W 87-74 88%    
  Dec 30, 2021 284   Sacramento St. W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 01, 2022 179   Northern Colorado W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 06, 2022 269   Portland St. W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 316   Northern Arizona W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 13, 2022 170   @ Montana L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 15, 2022 184   @ Montana St. W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 22, 2022 308   Idaho St. W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 24, 2022 102   Weber St. W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 27, 2022 269   @ Portland St. W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 03, 2022 350   Idaho W 85-65 96%    
  Feb 05, 2022 237   Eastern Washington W 83-74 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 284   @ Sacramento St. W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 14, 2022 179   @ Northern Colorado L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 19, 2022 184   Montana St. W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 21, 2022 316   @ Northern Arizona W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 24, 2022 170   Montana W 74-69 68%    
  Mar 03, 2022 308   @ Idaho St. W 71-64 73%    
  Mar 05, 2022 102   @ Weber St. L 73-79 32%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 6.6 7.5 5.2 2.5 0.6 27.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.3 8.1 5.5 1.7 0.4 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.9 5.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 4.7 3.5 1.0 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 3.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.3 5.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.5 10.3 12.0 14.1 14.6 12.5 9.1 5.5 2.5 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.5    2.4 0.1
18-2 93.7% 5.2    4.6 0.6
17-3 81.7% 7.5    5.5 1.8 0.1
16-4 53.2% 6.6    3.5 2.7 0.5 0.0
15-5 27.1% 4.0    1.1 2.0 0.8 0.0
14-6 6.4% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 17.9 7.6 1.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 45.3% 40.6% 4.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 7.9%
19-1 2.5% 51.0% 51.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.2
18-2 5.5% 42.4% 42.4% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.2 3.2
17-3 9.1% 35.0% 35.0% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.0 5.9
16-4 12.5% 28.8% 28.8% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.1 8.9
15-5 14.6% 26.1% 26.1% 14.7 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.3 10.8
14-6 14.1% 17.4% 17.4% 15.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.5 11.6
13-7 12.0% 12.3% 12.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 10.5
12-8 10.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 9.3
11-9 7.5% 9.4% 9.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 6.8
10-10 4.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.6
9-11 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 3.0
8-12 1.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 1.8
7-13 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.3 6.9 3.0 79.4 0.0%