Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#102
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#35
Pace72.6#91
Improvement+0.3#145

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#91
First Shot+4.1#64
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#232
Layup/Dunks-0.4#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#47
Freethrows-0.8#231
Improvement+0.4#126

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#116
First Shot-0.6#197
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#56
Layups/Dunks-6.4#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows+3.3#17
Improvement-0.1#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.7% 39.4% 30.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 2.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.5
.500 or above 98.8% 99.2% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.4% 96.9%
Conference Champion 51.4% 53.8% 40.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
First Round37.3% 38.9% 30.4%
Second Round7.5% 8.3% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.4% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dixie St. (Away) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 36 - 38 - 6
Quad 416 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 193   @ Duquesne W 63-59 62%     1 - 0 +5.6 -9.4 +15.0
  Nov 18, 2021 119   Massachusetts W 88-73 56%     2 - 0 +18.2 +15.8 +3.1
  Nov 19, 2021 212   Ball St. W 85-74 75%     3 - 0 +8.8 +2.5 +5.3
  Nov 21, 2021 300   Green Bay W 68-58 88%     4 - 0 +2.2 -5.0 +7.9
  Nov 27, 2021 301   @ Dixie St. W 85-75 81%    
  Dec 02, 2021 316   Northern Arizona W 81-65 94%    
  Dec 04, 2021 269   Portland St. W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 08, 2021 48   @ Washington St. L 70-78 24%    
  Dec 15, 2021 47   Utah St. L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 18, 2021 26   BYU L 70-76 30%    
  Dec 23, 2021 121   Fresno St. W 72-67 66%    
  Dec 30, 2021 184   @ Montana St. W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 01, 2022 170   @ Montana W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 08, 2022 308   @ Idaho St. W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 13, 2022 350   Idaho W 85-63 98%    
  Jan 15, 2022 237   Eastern Washington W 84-73 85%    
  Jan 20, 2022 308   Idaho St. W 76-60 92%    
  Jan 24, 2022 144   @ Southern Utah L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 27, 2022 179   @ Northern Colorado W 76-74 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 284   @ Sacramento St. W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 03, 2022 170   Montana W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 05, 2022 184   Montana St. W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 10, 2022 237   @ Eastern Washington W 81-76 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 350   @ Idaho W 82-66 93%    
  Feb 17, 2022 284   Sacramento St. W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 19, 2022 179   Northern Colorado W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 24, 2022 269   @ Portland St. W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 316   @ Northern Arizona W 78-68 82%    
  Mar 05, 2022 144   Southern Utah W 79-73 68%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 10.0 13.4 11.9 7.6 2.7 51.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.3 7.3 5.5 1.9 0.3 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 4.4 1.9 0.3 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.3 0.3 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.6 5.7 8.1 11.6 13.8 15.8 15.3 12.2 7.6 2.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
19-1 100.0% 7.6    7.5 0.1
18-2 97.4% 11.9    11.1 0.8
17-3 87.4% 13.4    10.8 2.5 0.1
16-4 63.2% 10.0    5.6 3.7 0.6 0.0
15-5 32.3% 4.4    1.5 2.0 0.9 0.0
14-6 11.2% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 51.4% 51.4 39.4 9.7 2.1 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.7% 77.0% 64.4% 12.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 35.4%
19-1 7.6% 66.6% 61.1% 5.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.1 0.2 2.5 14.3%
18-2 12.2% 57.9% 56.4% 1.5% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.8 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.2 3.4%
17-3 15.3% 45.7% 45.2% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.2 1.3 0.3 8.3 0.8%
16-4 15.8% 39.6% 39.4% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 1.0 2.5 2.2 0.5 9.5 0.3%
15-5 13.8% 31.3% 31.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.0 9.5
14-6 11.6% 24.7% 24.7% 14.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 8.8
13-7 8.1% 21.6% 21.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 6.4
12-8 5.7% 13.3% 13.3% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.0
11-9 3.6% 10.2% 10.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.3
10-10 1.7% 10.6% 10.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.5
9-11 1.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.5% 0.5
7-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 37.7% 36.7% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.6 8.3 11.4 8.7 3.9 0.6 62.3 1.6%