Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#121
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#36
Pace63.3#317
Improvement+1.6#55

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#141
First Shot-1.0#206
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#75
Layup/Dunks-3.2#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#326
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#180
Freethrows+5.5#2
Improvement-0.2#205

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#104
First Shot+3.9#68
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#295
Layups/Dunks+4.7#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#302
Freethrows+1.0#131
Improvement+1.8#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 9.6% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.9% 4.9% 1.5%
Average Seed 10.9 10.7 11.3
.500 or above 72.4% 85.0% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 66.1% 51.7%
Conference Champion 4.1% 5.2% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.9% 3.1%
First Four1.3% 2.0% 0.8%
First Round5.7% 8.3% 4.0%
Second Round1.6% 2.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 9
Quad 35 - 39 - 13
Quad 49 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 275   LIU Brooklyn W 84-60 87%     1 - 0 +14.8 +1.6 +11.5
  Nov 15, 2021 350   Idaho W 69-62 96%     2 - 0 -10.7 -8.1 -2.1
  Nov 22, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 70-63 74%     3 - 0 +3.3 +1.8 +2.1
  Nov 24, 2021 77   Santa Clara W 59-52 35%     4 - 0 +13.7 -4.0 +18.7
  Nov 28, 2021 129   @ California L 60-63 40%    
  Dec 01, 2021 142   San Diego W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 04, 2021 297   Cal St. Northridge W 72-58 89%    
  Dec 08, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 62-71 19%    
  Dec 11, 2021 70   UC Irvine L 62-63 45%    
  Dec 17, 2021 315   Cal Poly W 71-56 90%    
  Dec 21, 2021 51   @ Utah L 62-71 20%    
  Dec 23, 2021 102   @ Weber St. L 67-72 34%    
  Dec 28, 2021 67   @ Boise St. L 59-66 25%    
  Jan 01, 2022 256   Air Force W 66-55 84%    
  Jan 05, 2022 50   @ San Diego St. L 57-66 20%    
  Jan 08, 2022 91   Wyoming W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 11, 2022 289   San Jose St. W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 14, 2022 148   @ UNLV L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 18, 2022 47   Utah St. L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 21, 2022 88   @ Nevada L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 25, 2022 230   @ New Mexico W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 28, 2022 67   Boise St. L 62-63 46%    
  Feb 01, 2022 289   @ San Jose St. W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 04, 2022 88   Nevada L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 11, 2022 41   @ Colorado St. L 66-76 18%    
  Feb 16, 2022 148   UNLV W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 50   San Diego St. L 60-63 39%    
  Feb 22, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 63-58 68%    
  Mar 01, 2022 230   New Mexico W 77-68 79%    
  Mar 05, 2022 91   @ Wyoming L 65-71 30%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.7 4.3 1.9 0.3 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.2 2.2 0.1 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.8 2.9 0.2 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.9 6.5 2.9 0.4 14.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 4.3 6.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.9 1.9 0.3 12.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 2.9 2.8 0.8 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.3 8.0 10.9 13.2 13.4 12.6 11.5 8.5 5.6 3.4 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.4% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 75.7% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.1
14-4 38.1% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.8% 77.6% 26.3% 51.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 69.6%
15-3 1.5% 58.8% 23.6% 35.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 46.0%
14-4 3.4% 38.6% 16.5% 22.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.1 26.5%
13-5 5.6% 20.7% 10.9% 9.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.5 11.0%
12-6 8.5% 9.8% 6.2% 3.6% 11.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7 3.9%
11-7 11.5% 4.8% 4.1% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.0 0.7%
10-8 12.6% 3.4% 3.2% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 12.2 0.2%
9-9 13.4% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 12.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.1 0.1%
8-10 13.2% 1.1% 1.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.0
7-11 10.9% 0.8% 0.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
6-12 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.0
5-13 5.3% 5.3
4-14 3.1% 3.1
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.5% 3.7% 2.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 93.5 2.9%