Michigan
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#16
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#71
Pace66.3#253
Improvement-1.4#290

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#24
First Shot+3.5#75
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#13
Layup/Dunks+4.1#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#311
Freethrows+1.7#73
Improvement-0.4#231

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#21
First Shot+8.4#13
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#234
Layups/Dunks+3.7#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#47
Freethrows+2.8#33
Improvement-1.0#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 2.1% 0.8%
#1 Seed 7.2% 9.4% 4.4%
Top 2 Seed 16.6% 21.8% 9.7%
Top 4 Seed 38.9% 47.7% 27.4%
Top 6 Seed 58.5% 67.5% 46.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.5% 89.4% 75.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.1% 87.5% 73.0%
Average Seed 5.1 4.7 5.8
.500 or above 92.9% 96.5% 88.1%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 86.5% 79.5%
Conference Champion 14.0% 16.7% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four3.6% 2.9% 4.4%
First Round82.0% 88.1% 74.0%
Second Round61.9% 68.4% 53.4%
Sweet Sixteen34.6% 40.6% 26.6%
Elite Eight17.2% 20.8% 12.6%
Final Four8.1% 10.2% 5.3%
Championship Game3.5% 4.5% 2.3%
National Champion1.5% 2.0% 0.9%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 11
Quad 35 - 018 - 12
Quad 43 - 022 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 71   Buffalo W 88-76 84%     1 - 0 +16.0 +10.7 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2021 266   Prairie View W 77-49 96%     2 - 0 +22.2 -1.8 +22.7
  Nov 16, 2021 27   Seton Hall L 65-67 67%     2 - 1 +8.2 -0.5 +8.7
  Nov 19, 2021 148   UNLV W 74-61 89%     3 - 1 +14.4 +7.3 +7.9
  Nov 21, 2021 6   Arizona L 62-80 40%     3 - 2 -0.5 -2.0 +1.6
  Nov 24, 2021 180   Tarleton St. W 65-54 95%     4 - 2 +7.2 -1.2 +9.6
  Dec 01, 2021 44   @ North Carolina W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 04, 2021 50   San Diego St. W 68-59 79%    
  Dec 07, 2021 109   @ Nebraska W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 82   Minnesota W 74-63 86%    
  Dec 18, 2021 144   Southern Utah W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 21, 2021 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 84-60 99%    
  Dec 30, 2021 66   @ Central Florida W 70-66 66%    
  Jan 04, 2022 98   @ Rutgers W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 21   Michigan St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 11, 2022 2   Purdue L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 14, 2022 33   @ Illinois L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 18, 2022 53   Maryland W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 23, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 26, 2022 42   Northwestern W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 29, 2022 21   @ Michigan St. L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 01, 2022 109   Nebraska W 79-65 88%    
  Feb 05, 2022 2   @ Purdue L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 08, 2022 68   @ Penn St. W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 17, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 20, 2022 31   @ Wisconsin L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 23, 2022 98   Rutgers W 71-58 87%    
  Feb 27, 2022 33   Illinois W 75-69 70%    
  Mar 03, 2022 19   Iowa W 78-75 62%    
  Mar 06, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 70-71 47%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.3 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 14.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 5.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.4 5.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.6 5.1 1.7 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.5 1.8 0.2 10.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 4.2 1.6 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.4 1.9 0.3 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.6 4.6 6.8 9.2 11.2 12.7 13.9 12.2 9.7 7.5 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
18-2 96.2% 2.0    1.8 0.2 0.0
17-3 82.5% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
16-4 57.5% 4.3    2.5 1.5 0.3
15-5 24.2% 2.3    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2
14-6 7.4% 0.9    0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 8.6 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 0.2 0.0
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 43.4% 56.6% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.1% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.2% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.8 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.5% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 2.3 1.8 2.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.7% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 3.1 0.8 2.6 2.9 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.2% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 3.9 0.5 1.3 3.0 3.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.9% 99.7% 13.0% 86.7% 5.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.9 3.8 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 12.7% 98.3% 8.8% 89.6% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.2%
11-9 11.2% 92.1% 7.4% 84.7% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 91.5%
10-10 9.2% 74.5% 3.3% 71.3% 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.4 73.7%
9-11 6.8% 41.8% 3.4% 38.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 4.0 39.7%
8-12 4.6% 12.7% 0.6% 12.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.0 12.2%
7-13 2.6% 3.0% 1.9% 1.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.2%
6-14 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 83.5% 12.9% 70.6% 5.1 7.2 9.4 11.0 11.3 10.7 8.9 7.7 5.8 3.5 3.2 2.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 16.5 81.1%