Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
19 Duke 100.0%   5   26 - 8 14 - 6 27 - 8 14 - 6 +13.2      +5.8 40 +7.4 23 64.3 281 +14.4 16 +12.2 3
32 Virginia 99.6%   7   25 - 7 15 - 5 26 - 7 15 - 5 +11.8      +4.5 65 +7.3 24 57.0 360 +14.3 17 +12.2 2
37 Miami (FL) 98.7%   7   25 - 7 15 - 5 26 - 7 15 - 5 +11.3      +9.6 11 +1.7 116 70.8 111 +13.7 21 +13.2 1
39 North Carolina 26.2%   20 - 13 11 - 9 20 - 13 11 - 9 +11.0      +5.3 48 +5.7 41 71.6 94 +9.4 57 +8.1 7
45 North Carolina St. 53.1%   23 - 10 12 - 8 23 - 11 12 - 8 +10.4      +6.7 30 +3.8 74 72.0 76 +10.8 42 +9.8 6
50 Clemson 29.9%   23 - 10 14 - 6 23 - 10 14 - 6 +9.6      +4.6 63 +5.1 50 69.4 147 +9.4 58 +11.0 5
67 Pittsburgh 23.7%   22 - 11 14 - 6 22 - 12 14 - 6 +8.4      +7.1 22 +1.3 130 67.8 182 +9.4 56 +11.2 4
74 Virginia Tech 0.1%   19 - 14 8 - 12 19 - 14 8 - 12 +7.7      +6.2 35 +1.6 120 66.5 215 +6.8 82 +4.3 11
84 Wake Forest 0.0%   19 - 14 10 - 10 19 - 14 10 - 10 +6.9      +5.3 46 +1.5 123 73.0 54 +6.9 80 +6.8 8
103 Syracuse 0.0%   17 - 15 10 - 10 17 - 15 10 - 10 +4.5      +4.2 72 +0.3 166 68.0 181 +4.2 111 +6.0 9
143 Georgia Tech 0.0%   13 - 18 6 - 14 13 - 18 6 - 14 +1.5      +0.2 168 +1.3 127 66.7 211 +1.9 134 +0.8 13
149 Notre Dame 0.0%   11 - 21 3 - 17 11 - 21 3 - 17 +1.3      +3.2 94 -1.9 236 63.4 303 -1.5 192 -5.7 14
154 Boston College 0.0%   16 - 17 9 - 11 16 - 17 9 - 11 +0.9      -1.4 221 +2.3 104 66.3 222 +3.5 120 +5.8 10
179 Florida St. 0.0%   9 - 23 7 - 13 9 - 23 7 - 13 -0.7      +0.5 156 -1.2 213 71.0 105 -1.5 191 +2.4 12
261 Louisville 0.0%   4 - 28 2 - 18 4 - 28 2 - 18 -5.3      -2.0 241 -3.3 278 67.0 207 -8.7 316 -6.4 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 3.0 100.0
Virginia 1.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 1.0 100.0
North Carolina 7.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 6.0 100.0
Clemson 3.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 3.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 11.0 100.0
Wake Forest 8.0 100.0
Syracuse 8.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 13.0 100.0
Notre Dame 14.0 100.0
Boston College 10.0 100.0
Florida St. 12.0 100.0
Louisville 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 14 - 6 100.0
Virginia 15 - 5 100.0
Miami (FL) 15 - 5 100.0
North Carolina 11 - 9 100.0
North Carolina St. 12 - 8 100.0
Clemson 14 - 6 100.0
Pittsburgh 14 - 6 100.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 12 100.0
Wake Forest 10 - 10 100.0
Syracuse 10 - 10 100.0
Georgia Tech 6 - 14 100.0
Notre Dame 3 - 17 100.0
Boston College 9 - 11 100.0
Florida St. 7 - 13 100.0
Louisville 2 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke
Virginia 100.0% 100.0
Miami (FL) 100.0% 100.0
North Carolina
North Carolina St.
Clemson
Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Notre Dame
Boston College
Florida St.
Louisville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5   0.0 0.0 3.4 19.4 39.7 29.6 7.3 0.5 0.0
Virginia 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 7   0.1 1.5 12.8 34.8 35.4 12.9 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 99.6%
Miami (FL) 98.7% 0.0% 98.7% 7   0.0 0.1 2.7 14.2 36.9 32.6 11.1 1.1 0.0 1.3 98.7%
North Carolina 26.2% 0.0% 26.2% 0.0 0.0 0.5 18.3 7.4 0.0 73.8 26.2%
North Carolina St. 53.1% 0.0% 53.1% 0.0 0.4 4.3 41.3 7.0 0.0 46.9 53.1%
Clemson 29.9% 0.0% 29.9% 0.0 0.3 3.5 23.6 2.4 70.1 29.9%
Pittsburgh 23.7% 0.0% 23.7% 0.1 1.4 18.6 3.6 0.0 76.3 23.7%
Virginia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 67.1% 34.0% 13.4% 5.5% 2.2% 0.8%
Virginia 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 54.1% 20.6% 8.1% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Miami (FL) 98.7% 0.0% 98.7% 49.0% 15.3% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2%
North Carolina 26.2% 24.3% 15.5% 6.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 53.1% 41.1% 33.4% 13.6% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Clemson 29.9% 20.2% 19.6% 7.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 23.7% 19.3% 12.7% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.3 0.2 15.8 44.5 32.0 7.1 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.8 0.5 36.5 47.3 14.4 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 95.1% 2.0 4.9 24.2 40.3 25.5 4.8 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 61.0% 0.8 39.0 43.3 15.3 2.2 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 28.3% 0.3 71.7 25.5 2.7 0.1
Final Four 11.2% 0.1 88.8 10.9 0.3 0.0
Final Game 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.0 0.0
Champion 1.4% 0.0 98.7 1.4