Pre-tourney Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#20
Expected Predictive Rating+15.5#12
Pace65.7#244
Improvement+0.2#169

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#62
First Shot+2.9#90
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#57
Layup/Dunks+1.3#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
Freethrows+1.6#61
Improvement-1.3#314

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#12
First Shot+8.4#6
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#162
Layups/Dunks+3.1#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#28
Freethrows+1.7#54
Improvement+1.5#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 3.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 81.6% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 99.9% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 3.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round76.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen41.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight16.5% n/a n/a
Final Four6.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game2.6% n/a n/a
National Champion1.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 05 - 5
Quad 26 - 111 - 6
Quad 313 - 024 - 6
Quad 42 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 127   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-57 90%     1 - 0 +22.3 +9.2 +13.3
  Nov 11, 2022 77   BYU W 82-75 79%     2 - 0 +11.7 +3.7 +7.2
  Nov 15, 2022 86   @ Stanford W 74-62 63%     3 - 0 +21.8 +5.7 +16.4
  Nov 21, 2022 46   Ohio St. W 88-77 61%     4 - 0 +21.3 +15.2 +5.9
  Nov 22, 2022 10   Arizona L 70-87 38%     4 - 1 -0.6 -2.1 +2.7
  Nov 23, 2022 17   Arkansas L 74-78 OT 50%     4 - 2 +9.2 -2.2 +12.1
  Nov 29, 2022 104   UC Irvine W 72-69 86%     5 - 2 +4.5 -0.9 +5.4
  Dec 05, 2022 135   Troy W 60-55 90%     6 - 2 +4.0 -8.5 +12.8
  Dec 10, 2022 15   St. Mary's L 61-68 46%     6 - 3 +7.2 +1.9 +4.7
  Dec 12, 2022 131   Kennesaw St. W 88-54 90%     7 - 3 +33.1 +9.4 +21.5
  Dec 20, 2022 253   UC San Diego W 62-46 96%     8 - 3 +8.0 -15.0 +23.1
  Dec 28, 2022 152   Air Force W 71-55 91%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +14.1 +7.3 +9.0
  Dec 31, 2022 91   @ UNLV W 76-67 67%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +17.6 +8.2 +9.4
  Jan 07, 2023 150   @ Wyoming W 80-75 80%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +9.2 +17.2 -7.5
  Jan 10, 2023 56   Nevada W 74-65 75%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +15.1 +9.6 +6.1
  Jan 14, 2023 57   New Mexico L 67-76 75%     12 - 4 4 - 1 -2.9 -8.4 +5.9
  Jan 18, 2023 105   @ Colorado St. W 82-76 OT 71%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +13.4 +8.6 +4.6
  Jan 21, 2023 152   @ Air Force W 70-60 81%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +14.0 +11.3 +4.4
  Jan 25, 2023 28   Utah St. W 85-75 64%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +19.4 +23.1 -2.7
  Jan 28, 2023 96   San Jose St. W 72-51 85%     16 - 4 8 - 1 +22.9 +10.9 +15.4
  Jan 31, 2023 56   @ Nevada L 66-75 54%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +3.1 +6.9 -4.8
  Feb 03, 2023 38   Boise St. W 72-52 69%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +28.1 +9.2 +20.0
  Feb 08, 2023 28   @ Utah St. W 63-61 42%     18 - 5 10 - 2 +17.3 +0.6 +16.9
  Feb 11, 2023 91   UNLV W 82-71 84%     19 - 5 11 - 2 +13.7 +14.7 -0.6
  Feb 15, 2023 132   @ Fresno St. W 45-43 78%     20 - 5 12 - 2 +7.0 -15.3 +22.7
  Feb 21, 2023 105   Colorado St. W 77-58 86%     21 - 5 13 - 2 +20.4 +10.8 +11.7
  Feb 25, 2023 57   @ New Mexico W 73-71 54%     22 - 5 14 - 2 +14.1 +4.4 +9.7
  Feb 28, 2023 38   @ Boise St. L 60-66 46%     22 - 6 14 - 3 +8.1 +7.0 +0.0
  Mar 04, 2023 150   Wyoming W 67-50 91%     23 - 6 15 - 3 +15.2 +6.9 +12.2
  Mar 09, 2023 105   Colorado St. W 64-61 80%     24 - 6 +7.4 -4.8 +12.4
  Mar 10, 2023 96   San Jose St. W 64-49 79%     25 - 6 +19.8 +2.0 +20.1
  Mar 11, 2023 28   Utah St. W 62-57 53%     26 - 6 +17.4 -4.6 +22.1
  Mar 16, 2023 71   College of Charleston W 74-69 69%    
Projected Record 27 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 3.8 0.2 2.8 30.3 48.3 16.2 2.2 0.1 0.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 3.8 0.2 2.8 30.3 48.3 16.2 2.2 0.1 0.0