Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 Drake 35.5%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +8.2      +5.2 49 +2.9 98 65.9 243 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Murray St. 14.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 8 +3.7      +1.8 130 +1.8 123 65.6 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
115 Belmont 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +3.7      +2.9 103 +0.8 152 72.1 73 0.0 1 0.0 1
117 Bradley 13.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 9 +3.7      +1.3 147 +2.3 110 68.3 169 0.0 1 0.0 1
131 Missouri St. 11.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 +2.5      +2.6 111 -0.1 173 68.0 187 0.0 1 0.0 1
132 Northern Iowa 10.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 9 +2.3      +1.5 142 +0.8 148 68.2 178 0.0 1 0.0 1
138 Southern Illinois 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 9 +1.8      -1.0 213 +2.8 103 58.8 355 0.0 1 0.0 1
161 Indiana St. 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0.4      -0.4 193 +0.8 151 72.9 63 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 Illinois St. 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 11 -0.4      +0.8 161 -1.2 213 69.3 132 0.0 1 0.0 1
212 Valparaiso 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 12 -1.8      -0.9 211 -0.9 198 64.1 290 0.0 1 0.0 1
247 Illinois-Chicago 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -3.7      -1.4 233 -2.2 247 71.9 78 0.0 1 0.0 1
313 Evansville 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 24 4 - 16 -9.2      -6.4 334 -2.8 264 62.1 339 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 3.1 36.4 18.8 12.6 8.7 6.6 5.5 3.9 2.9 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.3
Murray St. 4.9 13.7 13.1 12.2 11.2 10.0 9.5 8.1 7.2 5.9 4.5 3.2 1.4
Belmont 4.8 14.2 13.8 12.2 11.4 10.1 9.4 8.1 6.8 5.6 4.5 2.9 1.2
Bradley 5.1 12.9 12.3 11.7 11.0 10.1 9.2 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.0 3.7 1.4
Missouri St. 5.5 10.1 10.7 10.9 10.7 10.1 9.5 9.2 8.7 7.3 6.3 4.3 2.2
Northern Iowa 5.5 10.0 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.1 9.7 9.1 8.6 7.6 6.2 4.7 2.2
Southern Illinois 5.8 8.8 9.7 10.2 10.1 10.2 9.8 9.3 9.2 8.2 6.8 5.0 2.6
Indiana St. 6.4 6.1 7.3 8.5 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.0 9.8 9.4 8.7 7.4 4.0
Illinois St. 6.7 4.9 7.1 7.9 8.7 8.9 9.8 10.1 10.2 9.9 9.9 8.2 4.6
Valparaiso 7.5 2.7 4.3 5.3 6.7 7.7 9.0 9.7 10.8 11.7 12.5 11.9 7.7
Illinois-Chicago 8.4 1.5 2.7 3.5 4.4 5.6 7.1 8.4 10.2 12.6 14.5 17.0 12.6
Evansville 10.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.6 5.1 8.0 12.0 20.9 44.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.2 7.7 9.1 10.5 11.3 11.3 10.7 9.2 6.2 2.8
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.6 8.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.1 7.8 6.4 4.7 3.0 1.5 0.4
Belmont 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.2 7.7 8.9 9.5 9.8 10.2 9.3 8.1 6.7 4.8 3.2 1.5 0.5
Bradley 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.6 6.8 8.2 9.0 9.5 10.1 9.5 8.5 7.4 5.9 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.4
Missouri St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.3 7.7 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 9.0 8.0 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.2
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.8 4.9 6.6 7.7 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.4 8.9 7.8 6.5 4.9 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.3
Southern Illinois 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.4 7.0 8.4 9.0 9.6 9.8 9.2 8.4 7.3 6.0 4.3 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3
Indiana St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.4 6.9 8.3 9.0 9.6 9.8 9.2 8.6 7.4 5.9 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Illinois St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.7 8.4 9.5 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.0 6.8 5.3 4.2 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1
Valparaiso 8 - 12 0.4 1.4 2.9 4.8 6.9 7.9 9.5 10.1 9.8 9.8 8.8 7.8 6.3 4.8 3.6 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.9 2.8 5.0 7.3 9.1 10.4 10.6 10.7 9.3 8.5 7.1 5.8 4.4 3.2 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Evansville 4 - 16 7.0 12.2 14.2 14.3 12.7 10.6 8.5 6.5 4.8 3.4 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 36.4% 27.6 7.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 13.7% 9.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Belmont 14.2% 9.4 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Bradley 12.9% 8.5 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 10.1% 6.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 10.0% 6.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 8.8% 5.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 6.1% 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 4.9% 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 2.7% 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 35.5% 25.1% 10.4% 12   0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.5 3.9 7.4 6.6 3.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 64.5 13.9%
Murray St. 14.1% 11.3% 2.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.5 3.0 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 85.9 3.2%
Belmont 14.9% 11.3% 3.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.9 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.7 85.1 4.0%
Bradley 13.9% 10.9% 3.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.4 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.7 86.1 3.3%
Missouri St. 11.5% 8.9% 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.1 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 88.5 2.8%
Northern Iowa 10.7% 8.5% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.9 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 89.3 2.3%
Southern Illinois 8.7% 7.5% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.6 91.3 1.3%
Indiana St. 6.3% 5.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 93.7 0.7%
Illinois St. 5.3% 4.8% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 94.7 0.4%
Valparaiso 3.6% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 96.4 0.2%
Illinois-Chicago 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 97.8 0.1%
Evansville 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 35.5% 3.4% 33.8% 14.7% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Murray St. 14.1% 1.8% 13.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 14.9% 2.1% 13.9% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 13.9% 1.6% 13.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 11.5% 1.9% 10.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 10.7% 1.6% 9.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 8.7% 0.9% 8.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 6.3% 0.8% 6.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 5.3% 0.6% 5.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 3.6% 0.7% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 2.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 75.2 22.5 2.1 0.1 0.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.2 1.6 78.6 18.4 1.4 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 33.0% 0.4 67.0 30.4 2.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.3 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0 0.0
Final Four 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2