Preseason Rankings
Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#212
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.1#290
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#211
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#198
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 7.2% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.7 12.7 14.3
.500 or above 41.7% 71.0% 34.7%
.500 or above in Conference 36.5% 57.9% 31.4%
Conference Champion 2.7% 6.4% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 4.0% 13.7%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round3.3% 6.9% 2.5%
Second Round0.5% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 49 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 108   @ Toledo L 68-77 19%    
  Nov 13, 2022 262   Western Michigan W 70-63 72%    
  Nov 16, 2022 362   @ Chicago St. W 76-59 93%    
  Nov 19, 2022 348   Incarnate Word W 75-60 90%    
  Nov 23, 2022 172   @ Samford L 71-76 35%    
  Nov 25, 2022 134   South Dakota St. L 73-77 37%    
  Dec 01, 2022 115   @ Belmont L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 04, 2022 114   Murray St. L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 10, 2022 58   @ Mississippi L 59-73 12%    
  Dec 18, 2022 302   Elon W 72-62 78%    
  Dec 21, 2022 359   Stonehill W 77-56 95%    
  Dec 29, 2022 74   @ Drake L 62-75 15%    
  Jan 01, 2023 161   Indiana St. W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 04, 2023 132   Northern Iowa L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 07, 2023 117   @ Bradley L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 10, 2023 115   Belmont L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 14, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 17, 2023 247   Illinois-Chicago W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 21, 2023 180   @ Illinois St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 25, 2023 132   @ Northern Iowa L 66-73 29%    
  Jan 28, 2023 313   Evansville W 69-59 79%    
  Feb 01, 2023 131   @ Missouri St. L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 04, 2023 74   Drake L 65-72 30%    
  Feb 08, 2023 161   @ Indiana St. L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 11, 2023 180   Illinois St. W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 14, 2023 138   Southern Illinois L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 19, 2023 247   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 22, 2023 117   Bradley L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 26, 2023 114   @ Murray St. L 63-71 25%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 4.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 12.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.9 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 11th
12th 0.4 1.3 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 7.7 12th
Total 0.4 1.4 2.9 4.8 6.9 7.9 9.5 10.1 9.8 9.8 8.8 7.8 6.3 4.8 3.6 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 96.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 76.7% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 48.9% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1
15-5 22.9% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 83.9% 32.3% 51.6% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.2%
19-1 0.2% 64.7% 35.3% 29.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 45.3%
18-2 0.4% 45.5% 30.7% 14.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3%
17-3 0.8% 27.9% 22.2% 5.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 7.3%
16-4 1.6% 19.9% 18.6% 1.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.6%
15-5 2.4% 15.3% 15.0% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.4%
14-6 3.6% 10.4% 10.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2
13-7 4.8% 7.7% 7.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
12-8 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9
11-9 7.8% 4.4% 4.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.4
10-10 8.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5
9-11 9.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
8-12 9.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.6
7-13 10.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-14 9.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.5
5-15 7.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-16 6.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.8
3-17 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
2-18 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.6% 3.4% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 96.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%