Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#161
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#63
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#193
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#151
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 6.6% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 14.9
.500 or above 62.9% 65.2% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 53.9% 23.8%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 5.7% 19.0%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round6.0% 6.2% 1.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 410 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 347   Green Bay W 78-61 94%    
  Nov 12, 2022 200   Ball St. W 80-75 67%    
  Nov 17, 2022 216   North Dakota St. W 74-69 68%    
  Nov 21, 2022 192   East Carolina W 73-72 54%    
  Nov 30, 2022 74   Drake L 70-75 34%    
  Dec 03, 2022 269   @ Miami (OH) W 76-73 60%    
  Dec 07, 2022 138   @ Southern Illinois L 63-67 36%    
  Dec 11, 2022 339   @ Southern Indiana W 77-67 78%    
  Dec 17, 2022 178   @ Duquesne L 71-73 42%    
  Dec 22, 2022 294   Northern Illinois W 77-66 82%    
  Dec 29, 2022 313   Evansville W 74-61 85%    
  Jan 01, 2023 212   @ Valparaiso L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 04, 2023 180   @ Illinois St. L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 07, 2023 247   Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 71%    
  Jan 11, 2023 138   Southern Illinois W 66-64 55%    
  Jan 15, 2023 131   @ Missouri St. L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 18, 2023 117   Bradley L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 21, 2023 114   @ Murray St. L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 24, 2023 74   @ Drake L 67-78 20%    
  Jan 28, 2023 132   Northern Iowa W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 01, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 71-64 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 114   Murray St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 08, 2023 212   Valparaiso W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 11, 2023 132   @ Northern Iowa L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 15, 2023 247   @ Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 180   Illinois St. W 76-72 61%    
  Feb 22, 2023 115   @ Belmont L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 26, 2023 131   Missouri St. W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 2.7 0.7 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.4 6.9 8.3 9.0 9.6 9.8 9.2 8.6 7.4 5.9 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 94.8% 1.0    0.8 0.1
17-3 75.0% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 50.2% 1.6    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.3% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 93.4% 42.0% 51.3% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.5%
19-1 0.4% 71.2% 41.2% 30.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 51.0%
18-2 1.0% 52.4% 31.3% 21.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 30.7%
17-3 2.0% 35.5% 26.3% 9.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 12.4%
16-4 3.3% 21.0% 18.4% 2.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.2%
15-5 4.5% 15.0% 14.5% 0.5% 12.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.5%
14-6 5.9% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0%
13-7 7.4% 8.9% 8.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.7
12-8 8.6% 6.5% 6.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.1
11-9 9.2% 5.2% 5.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.8
10-10 9.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.4
9-11 9.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.3
8-12 9.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
7-13 8.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.2
6-14 6.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.8
5-15 5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.4
4-16 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-17 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.3% 5.7% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 93.7 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 94.4% 4.3 5.6 2.8 16.8 38.5 14.0 5.6 8.4 2.8