Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 94.4%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 4 14 - 2 +21.3      +13.8 1 +7.5 21 80.3 3 0.0 1 0.0 1
44 St. Mary's 49.2%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 5 +10.9      +3.0 97 +7.9 15 61.4 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
55 BYU 33.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 10 - 6 +9.6      +5.5 45 +4.1 75 70.0 116 0.0 1 0.0 1
83 San Francisco 20.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 9 - 7 +7.1      +4.1 73 +3.0 95 71.4 92 0.0 1 0.0 1
127 Santa Clara 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 9 +3.0      +2.7 107 +0.4 160 76.2 24 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Portland 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 6 - 10 +0.8      +1.9 129 -1.0 203 71.6 88 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 Loyola Marymount 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 6 - 10 +0.8      +2.0 128 -1.2 209 65.5 255 0.0 1 0.0 1
176 San Diego 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 6 - 10 -0.3      -1.4 229 +1.0 141 65.4 259 0.0 1 0.0 1
194 Pepperdine 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 6 - 10 -0.9      +0.3 174 -1.2 214 74.5 40 0.0 1 0.0 1
228 Pacific 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 5 - 11 -2.9      -1.8 237 -1.2 208 69.7 124 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.3 80.5 13.2 3.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 3.3 13.1 30.3 20.9 14.0 8.8 5.8 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4
BYU 3.6 10.2 26.5 21.6 15.0 10.1 6.9 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.7
San Francisco 4.4 5.0 16.8 18.7 17.0 13.7 10.5 7.8 5.4 3.5 1.7
Santa Clara 5.8 1.4 6.8 10.3 12.7 14.0 14.3 13.3 11.6 9.3 6.2
Portland 6.4 0.8 4.1 7.7 10.9 12.4 13.7 14.3 13.8 12.8 9.7
Loyola Marymount 6.3 0.8 4.7 8.0 10.7 12.9 14.1 14.3 13.3 11.9 9.3
San Diego 6.7 0.6 3.9 6.9 9.3 11.0 12.4 13.5 14.4 14.3 13.7
Pepperdine 7.0 0.4 2.6 5.5 8.1 10.5 12.3 13.9 15.1 16.1 15.5
Pacific 7.5 0.2 1.8 4.0 6.0 8.3 10.1 12.6 15.5 18.7 22.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 6.3 11.4 18.5 27.4 29.9
St. Mary's 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.7 8.4 10.9 13.2 14.4 13.9 12.2 8.3 4.1 1.1
BYU 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.7 7.0 9.4 11.8 13.3 14.3 13.1 10.3 6.4 3.0 0.8
San Francisco 9 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.7 8.0 10.2 12.3 13.2 13.1 11.3 9.1 5.9 3.0 1.1 0.3
Santa Clara 7 - 9 0.5 1.7 3.5 6.0 8.9 11.1 12.8 12.9 12.2 10.5 8.2 5.6 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Portland 6 - 10 0.8 2.6 5.6 8.7 10.5 12.7 13.3 12.5 10.7 8.9 6.2 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6 - 10 0.8 2.6 5.1 8.0 10.3 12.4 13.3 13.1 11.0 8.9 6.4 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
San Diego 6 - 10 1.5 4.0 7.1 9.9 11.8 12.5 12.5 11.6 9.6 7.4 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 6 - 10 1.8 4.6 8.1 10.9 12.8 13.4 12.7 11.0 8.8 6.7 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pacific 5 - 11 3.5 7.2 10.9 13.4 13.8 13.1 11.2 9.0 6.9 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 80.5% 70.2 9.3 0.9 0.1
St. Mary's 13.1% 7.6 4.8 0.7 0.1
BYU 10.2% 5.8 3.7 0.6 0.0
San Francisco 5.0% 2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0
Santa Clara 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Portland 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.8% 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
San Diego 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 94.4% 58.4% 36.0% 1   26.1 18.9 11.4 9.7 6.6 4.9 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 86.5%
St. Mary's 49.2% 13.4% 35.9% 11   1.7 2.4 2.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.1 5.8 7.2 7.3 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 50.8 41.4%
BYU 33.8% 10.8% 23.1% 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.7 5.1 6.3 2.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 66.2 25.8%
San Francisco 20.9% 6.9% 14.0% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.4 3.5 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 79.1 15.1%
Santa Clara 7.8% 3.1% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 92.2 4.8%
Portland 3.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 96.7 1.4%
Loyola Marymount 3.7% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 96.3 1.8%
San Diego 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 97.4 1.0%
Pepperdine 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 98.1 0.7%
Pacific 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 98.9 0.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 94.4% 1.4% 93.9% 82.5% 60.6% 41.3% 27.2% 17.3% 10.7%
St. Mary's 49.2% 6.8% 45.7% 27.1% 11.7% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4%
BYU 33.8% 5.6% 31.3% 17.5% 7.2% 3.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3%
San Francisco 20.9% 4.2% 18.8% 9.1% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Santa Clara 7.8% 2.0% 6.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 3.3% 0.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 3.7% 1.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 2.6% 0.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 1.9% 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 20.9 46.0 27.2 5.6 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.1 0.0 24.9 47.3 23.6 4.0 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 92.6% 1.4 7.4 51.0 34.7 6.4 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 70.5% 0.8 29.5 57.5 12.3 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 47.8% 0.5 52.2 44.3 3.5 0.1
Final Four 30.6% 0.3 69.4 29.8 0.8 0.0
Final Game 19.0% 0.2 81.0 18.9 0.1
Champion 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.4