Preseason Rankings
St. John's
Big East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#49
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace82.4#2
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#80
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 3.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 8.5% 8.7% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 16.1% 16.5% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.3% 40.2% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.0% 34.9% 7.7%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 9.1
.500 or above 76.3% 77.6% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 54.6% 55.6% 22.7%
Conference Champion 7.9% 8.1% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 7.9% 24.3%
First Four3.7% 3.8% 1.7%
First Round37.6% 38.5% 9.2%
Second Round23.0% 23.6% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen9.9% 10.1% 1.7%
Elite Eight4.4% 4.5% 0.7%
Final Four1.9% 1.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Home) - 96.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 34 - 112 - 12
Quad 46 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 280   Merrimack W 80-60 97%    
  Nov 12, 2022 271   Lafayette W 86-67 96%    
  Nov 15, 2022 349   Central Connecticut St. W 90-63 99%    
  Nov 17, 2022 98   Nebraska W 90-82 74%    
  Nov 21, 2022 93   Temple W 79-75 64%    
  Nov 26, 2022 239   Niagara W 82-65 92%    
  Nov 29, 2022 304   LIU Brooklyn W 97-75 96%    
  Dec 04, 2022 51   @ Iowa St. L 74-77 41%    
  Dec 07, 2022 91   DePaul W 85-78 72%    
  Dec 10, 2022 329   New Hampshire W 83-59 98%    
  Dec 17, 2022 42   Florida St. L 80-81 48%    
  Dec 21, 2022 16   @ Villanova L 69-76 27%    
  Dec 28, 2022 27   Xavier W 83-82 52%    
  Dec 31, 2022 46   @ Seton Hall L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 03, 2023 63   Marquette W 86-82 63%    
  Jan 07, 2023 50   @ Providence L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 10, 2023 80   Butler W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 15, 2023 31   @ Connecticut L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 20, 2023 16   Villanova L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 25, 2023 14   @ Creighton L 74-82 26%    
  Jan 29, 2023 102   Georgetown W 88-80 75%    
  Feb 01, 2023 46   Seton Hall W 79-76 58%    
  Feb 04, 2023 27   @ Xavier L 80-85 33%    
  Feb 07, 2023 80   @ Butler L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 11, 2023 50   Providence W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 14, 2023 91   @ DePaul W 82-81 54%    
  Feb 18, 2023 14   Creighton L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 22, 2023 102   @ Georgetown W 85-83 57%    
  Feb 25, 2023 31   Connecticut W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 04, 2023 63   @ Marquette L 83-85 45%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.8 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.5 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.1 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 3.2 1.0 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.2 6.6 7.7 8.7 8.9 9.6 9.4 8.7 7.5 6.3 5.3 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 94.4% 1.3    1.1 0.1
17-3 79.0% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 55.4% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.4% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 5.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 2.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 99.9% 21.1% 78.7% 3.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 3.5% 99.6% 19.2% 80.5% 4.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 5.3% 97.7% 18.0% 79.7% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.1%
14-6 6.3% 92.6% 13.4% 79.2% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 91.5%
13-7 7.5% 83.4% 10.8% 72.6% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 81.4%
12-8 8.7% 66.5% 10.3% 56.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 62.6%
11-9 9.4% 45.2% 7.5% 37.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 40.7%
10-10 9.6% 24.1% 6.0% 18.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 19.3%
9-11 8.9% 10.4% 5.2% 5.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 5.6%
8-12 8.7% 4.2% 3.5% 0.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.4 0.7%
7-13 7.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.4
6-14 6.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
5-15 5.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
4-16 3.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.6
3-17 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-18 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-19 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-20 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
Total 100% 39.3% 7.9% 31.3% 7.2 1.1 1.8 2.8 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.3 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 60.7 34.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.1 16.6 3.3