IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Lafayette
Patriot League
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.7	#271
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.7	#309
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#245

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.6	#288

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.5%	19.0%	6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	13.4	14.9

.500 or above	28.9%	73.2%	27.8%
.500 or above in Conference	53.0%	84.1%	52.2%
Conference Champion	7.1%	25.5%	6.6%
Last Place in Conference	10.2%	1.9%	10.4%

First Four	1.9%	1.3%	1.9%
First Round	5.5%	18.4%	5.1%
Second Round	0.2%	1.0%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 7	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	32	@ Miami (FL)	L	61-82	2%
Nov 12, 2022	49	@ St. John's	L	67-86	4%
Nov 14, 2022	149	@ Saint Joseph's	L	64-74	19%
Nov 18, 2022	236	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	69-75	32%
Nov 19, 2022	349	Central Connecticut St.	W	72-64	76%
Nov 22, 2022	150	Penn	L	70-74	38%
Nov 25, 2022	66	@ Penn St.	L	55-72	7%
Nov 30, 2022	201	@ Drexel	L	65-72	26%
Dec 04, 2022	217	@ Cornell	L	72-79	28%
Dec 06, 2022	165	@ Princeton	L	66-75	23%
Dec 10, 2022	221	@ Quinnipiac	L	69-75	30%
Dec 12, 2022	315	Columbia	W	75-69	70%
Dec 21, 2022	182	@ La Salle	L	65-73	25%
Dec 30, 2022	312	American	W	69-63	70%
Jan 02, 2023	266	Army	W	72-69	59%
Jan 05, 2023	233	@ Boston University	L	65-71	32%
Jan 08, 2023	274	Bucknell	W	74-71	60%
Jan 11, 2023	246	@ Navy	L	61-66	34%
Jan 14, 2023	317	Holy Cross	W	74-67	70%
Jan 18, 2023	312	@ American	W	67-66	51%
Jan 21, 2023	282	@ Lehigh	L	70-72	45%
Jan 25, 2023	297	Loyola Maryland	W	68-63	66%
Jan 28, 2023	113	@ Colgate	L	64-76	16%
Feb 01, 2023	246	Navy	W	64-63	53%
Feb 04, 2023	282	Lehigh	W	73-69	63%
Feb 06, 2023	317	@ Holy Cross	W	71-70	52%
Feb 11, 2023	233	Boston University	W	68-67	51%
Feb 15, 2023	297	@ Loyola Maryland	L	65-66	47%
Feb 18, 2023	266	@ Army	L	69-72	40%
Feb 22, 2023	113	Colgate	L	67-73	31%
Feb 25, 2023	274	@ Bucknell	L	71-74	42%
Projected Record						13 - 18	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	0.8	1.7	2.0	1.4	0.6	0.2		7.1	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	3.5	2.5	1.0	0.2				11.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.8	4.0	3.7	1.7	0.3	0.0					11.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.5	4.6	3.3	0.9	0.1							11.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.8	5.1	2.8	0.6	0.0								11.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.1	4.8	2.5	0.4	0.0									11.3	6th
7th				0.0	0.0	0.7	3.0	4.6	2.1	0.3	0.0										10.7	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.1	3.0	3.6	1.6	0.2	0.0											9.6	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	1.4	2.7	2.6	1.1	0.2													8.4	9th
10th	0.3	0.8	1.8	1.9	1.3	0.4	0.0														6.5	10th

Total	0.3	0.9	2.1	3.4	5.1	6.8	8.3	9.9	10.2	10.5	9.8	9.0	7.8	6.1	4.5	2.9	1.6	0.6	0.2			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.6		0.6	0.0
16-2	90.1%	1.4		1.2	0.3	0.0
15-3	66.9%	2.0		1.2	0.7	0.0
14-4	38.2%	1.7		0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
13-5	13.5%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.8%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.1%	7.1		4.3	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		61.0%	61.0%		12.1					0.0	0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
17-1	0.6%		51.6%	50.8%	0.8%	12.9										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.3		1.6%
16-2	1.6%		35.8%	35.5%	0.3%	13.6										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.0		0.5%
15-3	2.9%		27.6%	27.6%		14.1													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	2.1
14-4	4.5%		20.6%	20.6%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	3.6
13-5	6.1%		14.4%	14.4%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	5.3
12-6	7.8%		9.9%	9.9%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	7.0
11-7	9.0%		7.8%	7.8%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	8.3
10-8	9.8%		5.2%	5.2%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	9.3
9-9	10.5%		3.2%	3.2%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.2
8-10	10.2%		2.5%	2.5%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.0
7-11	9.9%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	9.8
6-12	8.3%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	8.2
5-13	6.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
4-14	5.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.1
3-15	3.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
2-16	2.1%																							2.1
1-17	0.9%																							0.9
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		6.5%	6.4%	0.0%	14.8					0.0	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.2	1.7	2.6	93.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%