Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#311
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.9#302
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#290
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#317
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.4
.500 or above 13.3% 29.7% 8.1%
.500 or above in Conference 16.3% 29.6% 12.1%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 34.7% 20.2% 39.2%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round1.1% 2.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 82 - 12
Quad 47 - 88 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 253   @ Utah Tech L 56-64 24%    
  Nov 15, 2022 193   @ California Baptist L 64-75 16%    
  Nov 21, 2022 276   Tennessee St. L 69-72 40%    
  Nov 29, 2022 77   @ Boise St. L 56-76 4%    
  Dec 07, 2022 99   @ Fresno St. L 54-71 7%    
  Dec 10, 2022 213   Northern Colorado L 73-77 37%    
  Dec 19, 2022 342   Idaho W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 22, 2022 176   San Diego L 64-70 32%    
  Dec 29, 2022 273   @ Cal Poly L 62-68 32%    
  Dec 31, 2022 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 62-73 18%    
  Jan 05, 2023 188   Long Beach St. L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 07, 2023 207   @ UC Riverside L 62-72 20%    
  Jan 11, 2023 232   UC Davis L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 14, 2023 143   UC Irvine L 61-69 27%    
  Jan 17, 2023 157   @ Hawaii L 60-73 16%    
  Jan 19, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 61-76 12%    
  Jan 21, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 26, 2023 264   UC San Diego L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 28, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 58-72 15%    
  Feb 04, 2023 129   UC Santa Barbara L 64-73 24%    
  Feb 09, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 62-67 35%    
  Feb 11, 2023 273   Cal Poly L 64-65 50%    
  Feb 15, 2023 232   @ UC Davis L 63-72 24%    
  Feb 18, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego L 68-75 31%    
  Feb 20, 2023 207   UC Riverside L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 23, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 25, 2023 188   @ Long Beach St. L 69-80 19%    
  Mar 02, 2023 157   Hawaii L 63-70 30%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.2 4.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 14.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 3.9 6.0 5.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 19.4 10th
11th 2.4 5.5 7.0 6.4 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 26.3 11th
Total 2.4 5.7 8.3 10.6 11.1 11.4 10.3 9.6 7.8 6.7 5.4 3.7 2.9 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 87.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 86.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 55.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 64.3% 52.4% 11.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0%
18-2 0.1% 16.0% 16.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.2% 22.1% 22.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.4% 19.6% 19.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.7% 15.8% 15.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.2% 11.3% 11.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-7 1.8% 7.1% 7.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-8 2.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
11-9 3.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
10-10 5.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
9-11 6.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.5
8-12 7.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
7-13 9.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.5
6-14 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 11.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.4
4-16 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.1
3-17 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
2-18 8.3% 8.3
1-19 5.7% 5.7
0-20 2.4% 2.4
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%