Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#143
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.9#303
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#230
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 2.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 34.9% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 5.5% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.9 11.4 13.3
.500 or above 65.0% 90.5% 62.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 93.3% 77.8%
Conference Champion 21.5% 40.7% 19.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.2% 2.3%
First Four1.6% 2.0% 1.6%
First Round17.3% 33.9% 15.7%
Second Round2.7% 8.8% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 2.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 8.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 55 - 10
Quad 411 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 26   @ Oregon L 61-76 9%    
  Nov 15, 2022 155   Loyola Marymount W 69-65 63%    
  Nov 19, 2022 194   @ Pepperdine L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 25, 2022 220   Nicholls St. W 71-67 63%    
  Nov 29, 2022 23   @ San Diego St. L 54-69 10%    
  Dec 03, 2022 99   Fresno St. L 59-60 46%    
  Dec 10, 2022 135   @ South Dakota L 66-70 38%    
  Dec 15, 2022 127   @ Santa Clara L 69-74 35%    
  Dec 20, 2022 167   Harvard W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 31, 2022 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-59 67%    
  Jan 05, 2023 232   @ UC Davis W 66-64 55%    
  Jan 07, 2023 188   Long Beach St. W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 11, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 14, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-61 73%    
  Jan 16, 2023 129   UC Santa Barbara W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 19, 2023 157   Hawaii W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 26, 2023 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 28, 2023 311   Cal St. Northridge W 72-58 85%    
  Feb 02, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 04, 2023 188   @ Long Beach St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 09, 2023 273   Cal Poly W 68-57 80%    
  Feb 11, 2023 207   UC Riverside W 67-61 68%    
  Feb 15, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 18, 2023 232   UC Davis W 69-61 72%    
  Feb 20, 2023 273   @ Cal Poly W 65-60 64%    
  Feb 23, 2023 264   UC San Diego W 73-63 78%    
  Feb 26, 2023 157   @ Hawaii L 63-65 43%    
  Mar 02, 2023 207   @ UC Riverside W 64-63 50%    
  Mar 04, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-56 81%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 4.3 5.4 4.6 2.9 1.0 21.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.4 5.2 3.6 1.4 0.2 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.8 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.5 5.0 6.2 7.2 8.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 9.4 8.2 6.7 4.8 2.9 1.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 2.9    2.8 0.1
18-2 95.5% 4.6    4.0 0.5 0.0
17-3 79.5% 5.4    4.0 1.3 0.1
16-4 52.6% 4.3    2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.4% 2.4    0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1
14-6 8.5% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 15.4 4.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 83.6% 69.7% 13.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 45.9%
19-1 2.9% 65.3% 56.1% 9.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 20.8%
18-2 4.8% 49.0% 44.6% 4.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 7.8%
17-3 6.7% 40.5% 39.0% 1.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.0 2.5%
16-4 8.2% 30.2% 29.9% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.7 0.4%
15-5 9.4% 23.0% 22.9% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 7.2 0.1%
14-6 10.4% 17.8% 17.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 8.5
13-7 10.1% 13.1% 13.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 8.8
12-8 9.9% 10.3% 10.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 8.8
11-9 8.6% 6.7% 6.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.0
10-10 7.2% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.8
9-11 6.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.0
8-12 5.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.9
7-13 3.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-14 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.0% 17.3% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.6 3.9 4.1 3.1 2.1 1.8 82.0 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.2 8.5 16.9 31.4 34.7 8.5
Lose Out 0.0%