Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#99
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace57.7#360
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 4.2% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 20.7% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.7% 13.1% 2.7%
Average Seed 9.7 9.3 11.4
.500 or above 69.6% 82.2% 51.3%
.500 or above in Conference 58.7% 68.6% 44.4%
Conference Champion 7.7% 10.7% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 3.2% 9.5%
First Four2.7% 3.4% 1.5%
First Round13.7% 19.0% 5.9%
Second Round5.9% 8.7% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 3.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Neutral) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 43 - 8
Quad 36 - 39 - 11
Quad 47 - 116 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 129   UC Santa Barbara W 64-61 59%    
  Nov 16, 2022 83   San Francisco W 66-65 55%    
  Nov 18, 2022 79   @ North Texas L 52-57 33%    
  Nov 23, 2022 89   Washington L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 03, 2022 143   @ UC Irvine W 60-59 54%    
  Dec 07, 2022 311   Cal St. Northridge W 71-54 93%    
  Dec 12, 2022 228   @ Pacific W 66-61 67%    
  Dec 17, 2022 275   Sacramento St. W 69-54 88%    
  Dec 20, 2022 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-55 78%    
  Dec 28, 2022 62   Wyoming L 63-64 48%    
  Dec 31, 2022 76   @ Utah St. L 60-66 32%    
  Jan 03, 2023 110   New Mexico W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 07, 2023 78   @ Colorado St. L 60-65 34%    
  Jan 10, 2023 210   @ San Jose St. W 65-61 63%    
  Jan 14, 2023 231   Air Force W 64-53 82%    
  Jan 21, 2023 105   UNLV W 64-60 61%    
  Jan 24, 2023 77   @ Boise St. L 57-63 33%    
  Jan 28, 2023 76   Utah St. W 63-62 51%    
  Jan 31, 2023 62   @ Wyoming L 60-67 30%    
  Feb 03, 2023 105   @ UNLV L 61-63 43%    
  Feb 07, 2023 210   San Jose St. W 68-58 79%    
  Feb 10, 2023 126   @ Nevada L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 15, 2023 23   San Diego St. L 57-62 34%    
  Feb 18, 2023 78   Colorado St. W 63-62 52%    
  Feb 21, 2023 231   @ Air Force W 61-56 66%    
  Feb 24, 2023 126   Nevada W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 28, 2023 110   @ New Mexico L 69-71 45%    
  Mar 04, 2023 362   Chicago St. W 77-47 99%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.3 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.4 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.3 1.5 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.5 1.2 0.1 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.1 5.8 7.4 8.9 10.3 10.4 10.5 9.9 8.7 7.1 5.3 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 96.3% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 84.9% 1.8    1.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 59.9% 2.2    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.1% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 4.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 99.1% 39.1% 60.0% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
17-1 0.9% 95.5% 30.5% 65.1% 4.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.6%
16-2 2.1% 85.3% 24.9% 60.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 80.4%
15-3 3.6% 74.1% 20.4% 53.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 67.5%
14-4 5.3% 49.9% 15.4% 34.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 40.9%
13-5 7.1% 31.4% 12.4% 19.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 21.7%
12-6 8.7% 18.3% 10.6% 7.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 8.6%
11-7 9.9% 9.1% 6.7% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.0 2.6%
10-8 10.5% 6.6% 6.2% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.4%
9-9 10.4% 4.4% 4.4% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.1%
8-10 10.3% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.0 0.0%
7-11 8.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.7
6-12 7.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.2
5-13 5.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
4-14 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 2.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 14.9% 6.8% 8.1% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.0 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 85.1 8.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 23.3 35.2 30.5 11.0