Preseason Rankings
UC Riverside
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#207
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#277
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#236
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#171
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 19.8% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.8 12.8 14.1
.500 or above 44.5% 78.5% 41.1%
.500 or above in Conference 61.9% 84.3% 59.7%
Conference Champion 10.1% 23.0% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 1.0% 5.6%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 1.4%
First Round8.8% 19.2% 7.7%
Second Round1.0% 3.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 9.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 12
Quad 410 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 59   @ Colorado L 60-74 9%    
  Nov 10, 2022 155   @ Loyola Marymount L 66-71 31%    
  Nov 17, 2022 14   @ Creighton L 57-77 4%    
  Nov 21, 2022 208   Weber St. W 72-71 50%    
  Nov 22, 2022 171   Wright St. L 71-72 45%    
  Nov 23, 2022 147   Abilene Christian L 69-72 40%    
  Nov 30, 2022 193   @ California Baptist L 66-70 38%    
  Dec 11, 2022 342   @ Idaho W 75-67 75%    
  Dec 14, 2022 26   @ Oregon L 61-79 8%    
  Dec 20, 2022 176   San Diego W 67-65 56%    
  Dec 22, 2022 154   Portland W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 29, 2022 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-59 76%    
  Dec 31, 2022 188   @ Long Beach St. L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 05, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 07, 2023 311   Cal St. Northridge W 72-62 80%    
  Jan 11, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 14, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 16, 2023 273   Cal Poly W 67-60 72%    
  Jan 19, 2023 232   @ UC Davis L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 21, 2023 157   Hawaii W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 28, 2023 264   UC San Diego W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 02, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-62 58%    
  Feb 04, 2023 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 09, 2023 232   UC Davis W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 11, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 61-67 32%    
  Feb 15, 2023 188   Long Beach St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 129   UC Santa Barbara L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 20, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 24, 2023 157   @ Hawaii L 63-68 34%    
  Mar 02, 2023 143   UC Irvine L 63-64 50%    
  Mar 04, 2023 273   @ Cal Poly W 64-63 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.4 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.0 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 3.3 1.4 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 2.7 0.9 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.1 6.7 8.0 8.9 9.7 9.9 9.5 8.7 7.2 6.2 4.7 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
18-2 95.7% 1.7    1.5 0.2
17-3 79.7% 2.5    1.9 0.6 0.0
16-4 51.9% 2.4    1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.9% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 6.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 65.0% 53.9% 11.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.9%
19-1 0.9% 55.3% 48.7% 6.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12.9%
18-2 1.8% 44.6% 41.8% 2.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 4.9%
17-3 3.2% 33.9% 32.9% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.1 1.5%
16-4 4.7% 26.0% 25.9% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 0.1%
15-5 6.2% 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.0 0.1%
14-6 7.2% 15.1% 15.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 6.1
13-7 8.7% 11.6% 11.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 7.7
12-8 9.5% 8.6% 8.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 8.7
11-9 9.9% 5.9% 5.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 9.3
10-10 9.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.3
9-11 8.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.7
8-12 8.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.8
7-13 6.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.6
6-14 5.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.1
5-15 3.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-17 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.4% 9.3% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.9 90.6 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%