Preseason Rankings
Wright St.
Horizon
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#171
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.8#80
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#146
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#222
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 25.5% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.6 13.1 14.2
.500 or above 67.5% 85.9% 58.0%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 91.6% 76.8%
Conference Champion 23.1% 34.2% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.7%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 1.9%
First Round16.7% 24.8% 12.5%
Second Round2.0% 3.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 34.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 81   Davidson L 71-75 34%    
  Nov 12, 2022 73   @ Louisville L 68-79 16%    
  Nov 15, 2022 234   Bowling Green W 86-80 70%    
  Nov 21, 2022 147   Abilene Christian L 76-78 45%    
  Nov 22, 2022 207   UC Riverside W 72-71 55%    
  Nov 23, 2022 208   Weber St. W 78-77 55%    
  Dec 01, 2022 277   Robert Morris W 80-71 78%    
  Dec 04, 2022 223   Youngstown St. W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 10, 2022 107   @ Western Kentucky L 73-81 26%    
  Dec 14, 2022 119   @ Akron L 65-72 29%    
  Dec 22, 2022 269   @ Miami (OH) W 78-75 59%    
  Dec 29, 2022 195   @ Northern Kentucky L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 02, 2023 333   @ IUPUI W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 06, 2023 229   Detroit Mercy W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 08, 2023 214   Oakland W 79-74 65%    
  Jan 12, 2023 347   @ Green Bay W 75-65 80%    
  Jan 14, 2023 306   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 19, 2023 197   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 21, 2023 215   Cleveland St. W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 26, 2023 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-68 82%    
  Jan 28, 2023 347   Green Bay W 78-62 90%    
  Feb 02, 2023 223   @ Youngstown St. L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 04, 2023 277   @ Robert Morris W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 08, 2023 333   IUPUI W 76-62 87%    
  Feb 10, 2023 195   Northern Kentucky W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 17, 2023 215   @ Cleveland St. L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 19, 2023 197   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 23, 2023 214   @ Oakland L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 25, 2023 229   @ Detroit Mercy L 74-75 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 4.7 6.0 4.9 3.0 1.0 23.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 5.4 3.7 1.5 0.2 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.8 4.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 3.5 1.1 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.7 7.2 8.7 9.7 10.5 10.4 10.1 8.8 7.5 5.1 3.0 1.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.0
18-2 96.1% 4.9    4.4 0.5 0.0
17-3 80.2% 6.0    4.5 1.5 0.1
16-4 53.2% 4.7    2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 25.2% 2.5    0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1
14-6 7.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.1% 23.1 16.5 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 77.6% 66.7% 10.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 32.8%
19-1 3.0% 56.3% 53.3% 3.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 6.4%
18-2 5.1% 47.0% 46.1% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 1.7%
17-3 7.5% 36.1% 35.9% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.8 0.3%
16-4 8.8% 29.6% 29.5% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 6.2 0.1%
15-5 10.1% 21.7% 21.7% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 7.9
14-6 10.4% 16.3% 16.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 8.7
13-7 10.5% 11.4% 11.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 9.3
12-8 9.7% 9.5% 9.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 8.7
11-9 8.7% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 8.1
10-10 7.2% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.8
9-11 5.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.5
8-12 4.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.1
7-13 3.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
6-14 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.5% 17.3% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.6 3.9 4.0 3.1 2.7 82.5 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 93.3% 4.7 2.7 6.7 16.1 22.4 13.5 18.4 4.5 6.7 2.2