Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Arizona 100.0%   3   25 - 8 15 - 5 26 - 8 15 - 5 +19.5      +11.2 7 +8.3 12 78.5 15 +15.2 13 +14.1 1
29 Colorado 86.9%   9   24 - 10 13 - 7 25 - 10 13 - 7 +12.8      +7.9 26 +4.9 38 69.2 147 +11.9 36 +12.0 3
39 Washington St. 90.0%   7   24 - 9 14 - 6 25 - 9 14 - 6 +11.4      +4.9 65 +6.5 25 63.4 315 +12.3 28 +13.7 2
47 Utah 10.6%   19 - 14 9 - 11 19 - 14 9 - 11 +10.7      +5.4 55 +5.3 36 72.8 67 +9.5 65 +7.0 7
54 Oregon 100.0%   11   23 - 11 12 - 8 23 - 12 12 - 8 +9.7      +5.8 48 +3.9 69 67.6 209 +11.7 39 +11.2 4
65 Washington 0.0%   17 - 15 9 - 11 17 - 15 9 - 11 +8.8      +6.1 47 +2.7 95 76.0 30 +7.3 83 +6.3 8
76 USC 0.0%   15 - 18 8 - 12 15 - 18 8 - 12 +7.2      +3.2 96 +4.0 68 69.7 134 +6.1 94 +5.5 11
93 UCLA 0.0%   15 - 17 10 - 10 15 - 17 10 - 10 +6.2      +1.3 142 +4.9 40 60.5 351 +5.6 101 +8.0 5
98 Stanford 0.0%   14 - 18 8 - 12 14 - 18 8 - 12 +5.4      +3.4 92 +2.0 117 72.3 74 +3.8 114 +5.6 10
113 California 0.0%   13 - 19 9 - 11 13 - 19 9 - 11 +3.6      +1.9 128 +1.8 123 70.3 119 +3.5 117 +7.7 6
118 Arizona St. 0.0%   14 - 18 8 - 12 14 - 18 8 - 12 +3.2      -1.0 207 +4.2 63 71.4 92 +5.6 102 +5.9 9
137 Oregon St. 0.0%   12 - 19 5 - 15 12 - 19 5 - 15 +1.9      +1.3 147 +0.7 148 63.6 312 +3.3 118 +2.2 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.0 100.0
Colorado 3.0 100.0
Washington St. 2.0 100.0
Utah 6.0 100.0
Oregon 4.0 100.0
Washington 6.0 100.0
USC 9.0 100.0
UCLA 5.0 100.0
Stanford 9.0 100.0
California 6.0 100.0
Arizona St. 9.0 100.0
Oregon St. 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arizona 15 - 5 100.0
Colorado 13 - 7 100.0
Washington St. 14 - 6 100.0
Utah 9 - 11 100.0
Oregon 12 - 8 100.0
Washington 9 - 11 100.0
USC 8 - 12 100.0
UCLA 10 - 10 100.0
Stanford 8 - 12 100.0
California 9 - 11 100.0
Arizona St. 8 - 12 100.0
Oregon St. 5 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 100.0% 100.0
Colorado
Washington St.
Utah
Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA
Stanford
California
Arizona St.
Oregon St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   4.3 29.0 46.3 19.8 0.6 100.0%
Colorado 86.9% 0.0% 86.9% 9   0.0 0.7 4.5 9.1 18.4 26.9 23.2 4.0 13.1 86.9%
Washington St. 90.0% 0.0% 90.0% 7   0.0 4.5 20.2 38.7 21.9 4.4 0.3 10.0 90.0%
Utah 10.6% 0.0% 10.6% 0.9 9.6 0.2 89.4 10.6%
Oregon 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.0 0.2 2.6 13.6 36.2 47.3 0.2
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UCLA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.3% 73.7% 45.9% 25.9% 14.3% 7.5%
Colorado 86.9% 10.5% 82.3% 44.2% 12.2% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Washington St. 90.0% 0.0% 90.0% 45.5% 12.3% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Utah 10.6% 10.5% 5.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 40.9% 9.8% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UCLA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.9 0.9 18.6 72.8 7.8
1st Round 100.0% 3.8 1.3 23.6 71.5 3.6
2nd Round 99.2% 2.3 0.8 16.7 43.3 32.0 7.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 83.4% 1.1 16.6 60.4 20.6 2.3 0.1
Elite Eight 53.2% 0.6 46.8 48.3 4.7 0.1
Final Four 28.8% 0.3 71.2 28.1 0.6 0.0
Final Game 15.2% 0.2 84.8 15.2 0.1
Champion 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.7