Pre-tourney Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#5
Expected Predictive Rating+15.2#13
Pace78.5#15
Improvement-6.1#354

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#7
First Shot+8.9#11
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#55
Layup/Dunks+10.2#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#227
Freethrows+1.8#64
Improvement-2.8#317

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#12
First Shot+7.6#10
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#110
Layups/Dunks+9.0#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#312
Freethrows+4.6#4
Improvement-3.4#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 4.3% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 33.4% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 99.4% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 2.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round95.3% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen73.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight45.9% n/a n/a
Final Four25.9% n/a n/a
Championship Game14.3% n/a n/a
National Champion7.5% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 14 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 3
Quad 27 - 415 - 7
Quad 38 - 123 - 8
Quad 42 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 122-59 99%     1 - 0 +48.9 +30.2 +12.5
  Nov 10, 2023 9   @ Duke W 78-73 49%     2 - 0 +24.7 +6.6 +17.6
  Nov 13, 2023 288   Southern W 97-59 99%     3 - 0 +28.8 +9.5 +13.9
  Nov 17, 2023 114   Belmont W 100-68 95%     4 - 0 +32.9 +16.7 +12.7
  Nov 19, 2023 112   Texas Arlington W 101-56 95%     5 - 0 +46.0 +17.6 +23.6
  Nov 23, 2023 18   Michigan St. W 74-68 69%     6 - 0 +20.5 +12.9 +7.8
  Dec 02, 2023 146   Colgate W 82-55 96%     7 - 0 +25.7 +5.1 +18.8
  Dec 09, 2023 19   Wisconsin W 98-73 78%     8 - 0 +36.4 +21.4 +13.1
  Dec 16, 2023 4   Purdue L 84-92 47%     8 - 1 +12.2 +10.9 +2.1
  Dec 20, 2023 13   Alabama W 87-74 63%     9 - 1 +29.1 +6.0 +21.5
  Dec 23, 2023 43   Florida Atlantic L 95-96 2OT 79%     9 - 2 +10.2 +5.4 +4.9
  Dec 29, 2023 113   @ California W 100-81 89%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +25.2 +15.2 +7.2
  Dec 31, 2023 98   @ Stanford L 82-100 86%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -10.0 +6.6 -15.4
  Jan 04, 2024 29   Colorado W 97-50 81%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +57.2 +24.8 +30.9
  Jan 06, 2024 47   Utah W 92-73 86%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +27.1 +15.1 +10.3
  Jan 13, 2024 39   @ Washington St. L 70-73 70%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +11.0 +6.0 +4.9
  Jan 17, 2024 76   USC W 82-67 91%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +19.7 +6.6 +12.0
  Jan 20, 2024 93   UCLA W 77-71 92%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +9.6 +12.8 -2.8
  Jan 25, 2024 137   @ Oregon St. L 80-83 91%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +1.5 +12.1 -10.7
  Jan 27, 2024 54   @ Oregon W 87-78 75%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +21.3 +18.7 +2.6
  Feb 01, 2024 113   California W 91-65 95%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +27.0 +9.1 +15.2
  Feb 04, 2024 98   Stanford W 82-71 93%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +13.8 +9.7 +4.1
  Feb 08, 2024 47   @ Utah W 105-99 3OT 73%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +19.3 +15.0 +3.0
  Feb 10, 2024 29   @ Colorado W 99-79 65%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +35.4 +26.9 +7.4
  Feb 17, 2024 118   Arizona St. W 105-60 95%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +45.6 +30.3 +13.3
  Feb 22, 2024 39   Washington St. L 74-77 84%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +5.8 +5.2 +0.6
  Feb 24, 2024 65   Washington W 91-75 89%     21 - 6 12 - 4 +22.2 +7.2 +12.8
  Feb 28, 2024 118   @ Arizona St. W 85-67 89%     22 - 6 13 - 4 +23.8 +16.8 +6.8
  Mar 02, 2024 54   Oregon W 103-83 87%     23 - 6 14 - 4 +27.1 +29.8 -3.2
  Mar 07, 2024 93   @ UCLA W 88-65 84%     24 - 6 15 - 4 +31.8 +22.8 +9.4
  Mar 09, 2024 76   @ USC L 65-78 82%     24 - 7 15 - 5 -3.2 -5.2 +2.6
  Mar 14, 2024 76   USC W 70-49 87%     25 - 7 +28.2 +4.7 +24.6
  Mar 15, 2024 54   Oregon L 59-67 82%     25 - 8 +1.7 -4.8 +5.9
  Mar 21, 2024 160   Long Beach St. W 94-75 95%    
Projected Record 26 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.8 4.3 29.0 46.3 19.8 0.6 100.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.8 4.3 29.0 46.3 19.8 0.6 100.0%