Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
134 Eastern Kentucky 23.1%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 5 +2.0      +2.9 95 -0.9 203 74.0 42 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 Florida Gulf Coast 17.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 6 +0.6      +1.5 133 -0.9 201 66.1 230 0.0 1 0.0 1
184 Lipscomb 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 7 -0.7      +1.0 143 -1.7 226 72.3 72 0.0 1 0.0 1
204 Kennesaw St. 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 7 -1.9      -1.1 220 -0.8 199 70.2 125 0.0 1 0.0 1
207 Stetson 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 7 -2.0      +2.5 104 -4.5 312 62.8 312 0.0 1 0.0 1
215 Bellarmine 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 8 -2.5      -0.6 203 -1.9 231 58.4 356 0.0 1 0.0 1
223 North Alabama 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -3.2      -0.7 207 -2.4 249 70.5 119 0.0 1 0.0 1
224 Queens 6.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 8 -3.2      0.0 170 -3.3 273 73.3 51 0.0 1 0.0 1
236 Austin Peay 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 8 -3.9      -1.6 233 -2.3 244 63.3 301 0.0 1 0.0 1
246 Jacksonville 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 9 -4.7      -5.2 319 +0.6 155 56.3 360 0.0 1 0.0 1
280 North Florida 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 6 - 10 -6.4      -0.6 204 -5.7 340 69.8 135 0.0 1 0.0 1
336 Central Arkansas 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 4 - 12 -10.7      -3.6 285 -7.2 353 79.1 8 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Eastern Kentucky 3.5 30.6 17.8 13.0 10.0 7.8 6.3 4.6 3.8 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.5
Florida Gulf Coast 4.1 22.4 16.7 12.9 11.0 9.0 7.4 6.0 4.8 3.9 3.0 2.0 1.0
Lipscomb 4.8 15.1 13.5 12.3 10.9 10.1 8.8 8.1 6.7 5.6 4.2 3.0 1.7
Kennesaw St. 5.5 11.7 11.1 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.1 8.6 8.2 7.1 6.2 4.8 2.6
Stetson 5.5 11.1 11.0 10.6 10.2 9.7 9.3 8.7 8.2 7.3 6.1 4.9 2.8
Bellarmine 5.8 9.1 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.4 9.7 9.2 8.8 8.1 6.7 5.1 3.0
North Alabama 6.1 7.9 8.6 9.2 9.3 9.8 9.3 9.7 9.2 8.6 7.7 6.3 4.2
Queens 6.2 7.3 8.3 8.9 9.1 9.9 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.2 8.3 7.1 3.7
Austin Peay 6.6 6.0 6.9 7.9 8.7 9.2 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.1 7.6 5.4
Jacksonville 7.0 4.3 5.7 7.1 7.6 8.4 9.3 9.8 10.3 10.7 10.5 9.9 6.4
North Florida 8.0 2.3 3.5 4.6 5.5 6.5 7.6 9.0 10.4 11.6 13.3 14.5 11.2
Central Arkansas 10.0 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.7 6.5 8.8 13.0 20.5 36.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Eastern Kentucky 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.7 5.6 7.8 10.3 12.4 13.6 13.7 12.0 9.3 5.6 2.1
Florida Gulf Coast 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.0 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.8 13.0 12.2 9.6 7.0 3.9 1.2
Lipscomb 9 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.2 7.0 9.6 11.4 12.5 12.8 11.7 10.1 7.1 4.3 2.0 0.5
Kennesaw St. 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.6 7.0 9.1 10.9 11.6 12.3 11.4 10.0 8.1 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.4
Stetson 9 - 7 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.7 6.8 9.3 11.1 11.8 12.1 11.3 10.1 7.7 5.5 3.1 1.3 0.3
Bellarmine 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.1 7.6 10.2 11.6 12.7 12.4 11.3 9.2 7.0 4.4 2.3 0.9 0.3
North Alabama 8 - 8 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.8 6.2 8.5 10.6 11.8 12.5 11.9 10.1 8.6 5.9 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.2
Queens 8 - 8 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.4 9.1 11.1 12.3 12.3 11.7 10.1 7.9 5.6 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.1
Austin Peay 8 - 8 0.2 1.2 2.8 4.9 7.3 10.0 11.6 12.4 12.5 11.2 9.4 6.9 4.7 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1
Jacksonville 7 - 9 0.4 1.6 3.5 6.0 8.9 11.1 12.4 12.6 12.0 10.3 8.0 5.9 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.0
North Florida 6 - 10 0.9 3.0 6.3 9.1 12.0 13.5 12.7 11.9 9.8 7.8 5.5 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 4 - 12 5.8 11.9 15.2 15.6 14.5 12.2 9.0 6.3 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Eastern Kentucky 30.6% 20.6 7.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 22.4% 14.2 6.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lipscomb 15.1% 9.0 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 11.7% 6.8 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 11.1% 6.6 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 9.1% 5.0 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 7.9% 4.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Queens 7.3% 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 6.0% 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 4.3% 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Florida 2.3% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Eastern Kentucky 23.1% 22.8% 0.2% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.7 6.1 5.2 3.0 1.6 76.9 0.3%
Florida Gulf Coast 17.0% 16.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 2.3 83.0 0.3%
Lipscomb 11.6% 11.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.9 88.4 0.1%
Kennesaw St. 8.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.7 91.1 0.1%
Stetson 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8 91.5 0.0%
Bellarmine 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.9 92.4 0.0%
North Alabama 6.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 93.7 0.0%
Queens 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.6 93.9 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 94.9 0.0%
Jacksonville 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 96.2 0.0%
North Florida 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 97.6 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Eastern Kentucky 23.1% 1.0% 22.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 17.0% 1.7% 16.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 11.6% 1.3% 11.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.9% 1.2% 8.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 8.5% 1.3% 7.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 7.6% 1.5% 7.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 6.3% 1.0% 5.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 6.1% 1.2% 5.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.1% 1.2% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 3.8% 0.8% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 2.4% 0.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.8
1st Round 94.5% 1.0 5.5 94.1 0.5
2nd Round 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0