Preseason Rankings
Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#215
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.4#356
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#203
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#231
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 14.2% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.4 14.4
.500 or above 38.3% 64.5% 35.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.4% 75.2% 58.6%
Conference Champion 9.1% 16.3% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 2.6% 6.1%
First Four1.5% 1.0% 1.5%
First Round7.0% 13.7% 6.2%
Second Round0.7% 2.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 53 - 12
Quad 49 - 412 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 74   @ Washington L 61-74 11%    
  Nov 10, 2023 32   @ Kansas St. L 60-77 5%    
  Nov 14, 2023 197   @ Chattanooga L 66-70 35%    
  Nov 17, 2023 235   @ Bowling Green L 69-71 45%    
  Nov 20, 2023 220   Morehead St. W 63-60 63%    
  Nov 26, 2023 63   @ West Virginia L 61-75 11%    
  Nov 29, 2023 124   @ Louisville L 62-70 24%    
  Dec 02, 2023 234   @ Ball St. L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 16, 2023 329   Evansville W 72-62 81%    
  Dec 20, 2023 62   @ Utah L 57-71 12%    
  Dec 22, 2023 50   @ BYU L 61-76 10%    
  Dec 30, 2023 278   @ High Point W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 04, 2024 236   Austin Peay W 66-62 65%    
  Jan 06, 2024 184   Lipscomb W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 11, 2024 223   @ North Alabama L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 13, 2024 336   @ Central Arkansas W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 20, 2024 134   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-74 26%    
  Jan 25, 2024 280   North Florida W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 27, 2024 246   Jacksonville W 60-55 66%    
  Feb 01, 2024 204   @ Kennesaw St. L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 03, 2024 224   @ Queens L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 07, 2024 207   Stetson W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 10, 2024 159   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 17, 2024 134   Eastern Kentucky L 69-71 46%    
  Feb 22, 2024 336   Central Arkansas W 78-67 82%    
  Feb 24, 2024 223   North Alabama W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 28, 2024 184   @ Lipscomb L 66-71 35%    
  Mar 01, 2024 236   @ Austin Peay L 63-65 45%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.9 1.1 0.1 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.6 1.2 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 5.4 1.5 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.4 2.2 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.5 3.1 0.2 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.0 1.2 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.9 0.1 5.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.1 7.6 10.2 11.6 12.7 12.4 11.3 9.2 7.0 4.4 2.3 0.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 98.6% 0.9    0.8 0.1
14-2 89.9% 2.1    1.6 0.4 0.0
13-3 64.3% 2.8    1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-4 33.2% 2.3    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 7.1% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.0 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 51.3% 49.6% 1.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3%
15-1 0.9% 49.6% 48.7% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7%
14-2 2.3% 37.1% 36.7% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.6%
13-3 4.4% 25.2% 25.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3
12-4 7.0% 19.0% 19.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 5.7
11-5 9.2% 12.6% 12.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.0
10-6 11.3% 8.1% 8.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 10.4
9-7 12.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 11.7
8-8 12.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 12.2
7-9 11.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.3
6-10 10.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 10.0
5-11 7.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.6
4-12 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-13 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.9 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%