Preseason Rankings
Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#134
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.0#42
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#203
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 24.6% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.9
.500 or above 79.9% 83.5% 56.9%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 88.5% 75.1%
Conference Champion 30.6% 32.4% 18.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 2.8%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.4%
First Round22.6% 24.1% 12.8%
Second Round3.7% 4.1% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 412 - 317 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 17, 2023 282   Tennessee Martin W 89-77 86%    
  Nov 21, 2023 326   Prairie View W 81-66 91%    
  Nov 27, 2023 218   Troy W 79-71 75%    
  Dec 03, 2023 172   @ Western Kentucky L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 07, 2023 119   @ UNC Greensboro L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 13, 2023 176   @ Louisiana L 77-78 47%    
  Dec 17, 2023 183   Northern Kentucky W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 21, 2023 218   @ Troy W 76-74 56%    
  Dec 23, 2023 12   @ Alabama L 75-91 8%    
  Dec 29, 2023 2   @ Purdue L 63-82 5%    
  Jan 04, 2024 184   Lipscomb W 82-76 69%    
  Jan 06, 2024 236   Austin Peay W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 11, 2024 336   @ Central Arkansas W 89-79 80%    
  Jan 13, 2024 223   @ North Alabama W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 20, 2024 215   Bellarmine W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 25, 2024 246   Jacksonville W 71-61 79%    
  Jan 27, 2024 280   North Florida W 85-74 83%    
  Feb 01, 2024 224   @ Queens W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 03, 2024 204   @ Kennesaw St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 07, 2024 159   Florida Gulf Coast W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 10, 2024 207   @ Stetson W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 14, 2024 324   Chicago St. W 81-66 88%    
  Feb 17, 2024 215   @ Bellarmine W 71-69 54%    
  Feb 22, 2024 223   North Alabama W 82-74 75%    
  Feb 24, 2024 336   Central Arkansas W 92-76 90%    
  Feb 28, 2024 236   @ Austin Peay W 75-72 59%    
  Mar 01, 2024 184   @ Lipscomb L 79-80 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.0 8.2 8.4 5.5 2.1 30.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.4 6.5 3.7 0.8 0.1 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 5.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.7 1.5 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.1 1.6 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.3 1.8 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.8 0.2 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.7 5.6 7.8 10.3 12.4 13.6 13.7 12.0 9.3 5.6 2.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
15-1 98.9% 5.5    5.2 0.3
14-2 91.0% 8.4    6.8 1.5 0.1
13-3 67.8% 8.2    4.7 3.0 0.5 0.0
12-4 36.4% 5.0    1.7 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-5 9.3% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 30.6% 30.6 20.6 7.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.1% 73.4% 67.5% 5.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 18.1%
15-1 5.6% 57.9% 56.4% 1.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 3.4%
14-2 9.3% 46.5% 46.1% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.0 0.7%
13-3 12.0% 34.9% 34.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.8
12-4 13.7% 27.3% 27.3% 13.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 9.9
11-5 13.6% 19.8% 19.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2 10.9
10-6 12.4% 12.6% 12.6% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 10.8
9-7 10.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 9.3
8-8 7.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.3
7-9 5.6% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.4
6-10 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
5-11 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-12 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.1% 22.8% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.7 6.1 5.2 3.0 1.6 76.9 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 31.3 2.1 16.7 16.7 2.1 31.3