Preseason Rankings
Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#153
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#222
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 12.9% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.7
.500 or above 68.1% 77.7% 54.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.8% 77.2% 64.4%
Conference Champion 14.5% 17.6% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.9% 4.6%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round10.3% 12.5% 7.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 410 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 240   @ Northern Illinois W 69-67 58%    
  Nov 14, 2023 118   @ Oregon St. L 59-64 33%    
  Nov 21, 2023 140   UNC Wilmington L 64-65 47%    
  Nov 22, 2023 154   Murray St. W 68-67 51%    
  Nov 26, 2023 236   Austin Peay W 69-61 76%    
  Nov 29, 2023 239   East Tennessee St. W 68-60 76%    
  Dec 03, 2023 23   Auburn L 63-72 22%    
  Dec 13, 2023 224   @ Queens W 71-70 53%    
  Dec 16, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 65-63 58%    
  Dec 21, 2023 170   UNC Asheville W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 30, 2023 287   Louisiana Monroe W 70-59 83%    
  Jan 04, 2024 177   @ South Alabama L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 06, 2024 218   @ Troy W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 11, 2024 270   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 13, 2024 121   @ James Madison L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 17, 2024 206   Georgia St. W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 270   Coastal Carolina W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 25, 2024 229   Georgia Southern W 69-61 73%    
  Jan 27, 2024 121   James Madison W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 01, 2024 206   @ Georgia St. W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 03, 2024 229   @ Georgia Southern W 66-64 55%    
  Feb 07, 2024 193   @ Texas St. L 61-62 48%    
  Feb 15, 2024 135   Marshall W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 17, 2024 176   Louisiana W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 22, 2024 180   @ Old Dominion L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 24, 2024 135   @ Marshall L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 28, 2024 180   Old Dominion W 65-60 64%    
  Mar 01, 2024 198   Arkansas St. W 65-60 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 4.2 3.1 1.5 0.3 14.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.0 1.1 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.2 0.2 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.2 0.1 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.2 7.0 8.6 10.1 11.3 11.4 10.8 9.5 7.6 5.9 3.4 1.5 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 98.8% 1.5    1.4 0.1
16-2 91.7% 3.1    2.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 72.2% 4.2    2.8 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.8% 3.4    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.4% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 8.8 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 72.1% 53.9% 18.2% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 39.4%
17-1 1.5% 54.2% 42.0% 12.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 20.9%
16-2 3.4% 39.3% 34.9% 4.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 6.7%
15-3 5.9% 28.3% 27.9% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 0.7%
14-4 7.6% 19.9% 19.8% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.0%
13-5 9.5% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.0 0.0%
12-6 10.8% 12.2% 12.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.5
11-7 11.4% 7.8% 7.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.5
10-8 11.3% 5.2% 5.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.7
9-9 10.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.8
8-10 8.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
7-11 7.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.8
6-12 5.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.1
5-13 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
4-14 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.7% 10.2% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.9 89.3 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.6 2.5 10.1 13.9 26.6 13.9 22.8 8.9 1.3