Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#65
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#141
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.3% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 3.8% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 6.4% 11.0% 3.6%
Top 6 Seed 13.0% 21.0% 8.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.6% 48.2% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.0% 44.3% 23.0%
Average Seed 7.4 7.0 8.0
.500 or above 57.9% 73.4% 48.3%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 55.8% 39.0%
Conference Champion 4.0% 6.1% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 5.2% 11.2%
First Four4.4% 4.8% 4.1%
First Round32.4% 45.8% 24.2%
Second Round18.4% 27.4% 12.9%
Sweet Sixteen7.4% 11.7% 4.7%
Elite Eight3.0% 4.9% 1.9%
Final Four1.1% 1.8% 0.7%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Neutral) - 38.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 47 - 12
Quad 35 - 212 - 14
Quad 43 - 015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 37   Mississippi St. L 63-66 38%    
  Nov 11, 2023 222   Texas Southern W 79-65 90%    
  Nov 16, 2023 179   Umass Lowell W 79-67 85%    
  Nov 24, 2023 50   BYU L 73-74 45%    
  Nov 29, 2023 117   Sam Houston St. W 70-62 76%    
  Dec 03, 2023 92   San Francisco W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 06, 2023 101   SMU W 76-69 72%    
  Dec 09, 2023 227   @ San Diego W 78-69 77%    
  Dec 16, 2023 24   TCU L 70-75 35%    
  Dec 20, 2023 47   Northwestern L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 29, 2023 49   @ Stanford L 68-73 35%    
  Dec 31, 2023 105   @ California W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 04, 2024 62   Utah W 70-67 58%    
  Jan 06, 2024 33   Colorado L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 11, 2024 74   @ Washington L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 17, 2024 19   UCLA L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 20, 2024 18   USC L 70-73 42%    
  Jan 25, 2024 35   @ Oregon L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 27, 2024 118   @ Oregon St. W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 49   Stanford W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 03, 2024 105   California W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 08, 2024 33   @ Colorado L 68-75 29%    
  Feb 10, 2024 62   @ Utah L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 14, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 17, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 73-83 20%    
  Feb 22, 2024 74   Washington W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 24, 2024 86   Washington St. W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 28, 2024 11   Arizona L 76-80 36%    
  Mar 07, 2024 18   @ USC L 67-76 24%    
  Mar 09, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 64-72 25%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.6 12th
Total 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.8 4.5 6.4 8.1 9.7 10.4 10.4 10.2 9.3 7.9 6.1 4.8 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 98.9% 0.5    0.4 0.0
17-3 80.3% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 51.4% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 27.8% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.1% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.1% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 3.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.4% 99.6% 13.9% 85.7% 4.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 4.8% 97.0% 13.0% 83.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.5%
13-7 6.1% 91.1% 9.9% 81.2% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 90.2%
12-8 7.9% 77.6% 8.4% 69.2% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 75.5%
11-9 9.3% 59.2% 6.5% 52.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 56.4%
10-10 10.2% 32.0% 4.1% 27.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 29.1%
9-11 10.4% 12.8% 3.4% 9.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 9.7%
8-12 10.4% 4.5% 2.8% 1.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0 1.8%
7-13 9.7% 2.1% 2.0% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.5 0.1%
6-14 8.1% 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.9 0.1%
5-15 6.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
4-16 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.5
3-17 2.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-18 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
Total 100% 34.6% 5.3% 29.3% 7.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.5 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 65.4 31.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Lose Out 0.0%