Preseason Rankings
Stanford
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#49
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#260
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 3.3% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 9.0% 9.2% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 16.5% 16.8% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.7% 42.3% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.3% 38.0% 11.6%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.6
.500 or above 77.0% 77.7% 44.8%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 60.4% 32.8%
Conference Champion 7.6% 7.7% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 5.0% 14.0%
First Four4.6% 4.7% 2.1%
First Round39.3% 40.0% 12.5%
Second Round23.7% 24.2% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen10.2% 10.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight4.4% 4.5% 0.4%
Final Four2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 37 - 10
Quad 34 - 111 - 11
Quad 45 - 017 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 316   Cal St. Northridge W 78-57 98%    
  Nov 10, 2023 252   Sacramento St. W 75-57 95%    
  Nov 14, 2023 144   Santa Clara W 80-69 84%    
  Nov 17, 2023 169   Eastern Washington W 80-67 87%    
  Nov 22, 2023 17   Arkansas L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 03, 2023 227   San Diego W 82-66 92%    
  Dec 17, 2023 354   Idaho W 83-57 99%    
  Dec 21, 2023 31   @ San Diego St. L 64-69 32%    
  Dec 29, 2023 65   Arizona St. W 73-68 65%    
  Dec 31, 2023 11   Arizona L 76-79 41%    
  Jan 03, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 64-71 29%    
  Jan 06, 2024 18   @ USC L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 11, 2024 118   @ Oregon St. W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 14, 2024 62   Utah W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 18, 2024 86   Washington St. W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 74   Washington W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 26, 2024 105   @ California W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 01, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 04, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 73-82 24%    
  Feb 07, 2024 19   UCLA L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 10, 2024 18   USC L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 15, 2024 74   @ Washington L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 17, 2024 86   @ Washington St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 22, 2024 35   Oregon W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 24, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 71-61 79%    
  Feb 29, 2024 62   @ Utah L 67-69 44%    
  Mar 03, 2024 33   @ Colorado L 69-74 34%    
  Mar 07, 2024 105   California W 70-61 76%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.0 5.6 7.1 8.8 9.7 10.5 10.6 9.5 8.9 7.0 5.4 3.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.9% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 79.3% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 54.9% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.3% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 4.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 2.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.7% 99.7% 18.8% 80.9% 4.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 5.4% 98.8% 14.8% 84.0% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
14-6 7.0% 95.3% 12.5% 82.8% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 94.7%
13-7 8.9% 83.5% 9.1% 74.4% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.5 81.8%
12-8 9.5% 65.2% 7.0% 58.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.3 62.6%
11-9 10.6% 43.8% 6.0% 37.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.0 40.2%
10-10 10.5% 22.0% 4.5% 17.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.2 18.4%
9-11 9.7% 6.9% 3.6% 3.4% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.0 3.5%
8-12 8.8% 3.8% 3.2% 0.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.6%
7-13 7.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.9
6-14 5.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
5-15 4.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-17 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 41.7% 7.0% 34.7% 7.2 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.6 4.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 58.3 37.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.0 6.0