Preseason Rankings
Colorado
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#33
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#92
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.4% 3.6% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 7.9% 8.5% 2.2%
Top 4 Seed 18.5% 19.7% 5.6%
Top 6 Seed 29.9% 31.8% 11.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.5% 61.8% 36.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.7% 57.1% 31.8%
Average Seed 6.4 6.3 7.7
.500 or above 89.8% 91.5% 72.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 75.9% 57.5%
Conference Champion 13.9% 14.7% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.1% 5.4%
First Four5.0% 5.0% 5.1%
First Round56.8% 59.2% 33.0%
Second Round37.6% 39.4% 19.7%
Sweet Sixteen18.3% 19.4% 7.3%
Elite Eight8.6% 9.1% 3.3%
Final Four4.0% 4.2% 1.6%
Championship Game1.8% 2.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.2%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 6
Quad 25 - 28 - 9
Quad 36 - 114 - 10
Quad 46 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 158   Towson W 76-62 91%    
  Nov 10, 2023 253   Grambling St. W 78-58 96%    
  Nov 14, 2023 217   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-70 94%    
  Nov 20, 2023 129   Richmond W 74-65 80%    
  Nov 26, 2023 148   Iona W 81-67 89%    
  Nov 29, 2023 71   @ Colorado St. W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 03, 2023 191   Pepperdine W 87-71 92%    
  Dec 10, 2023 30   Miami (FL) L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 15, 2023 251   Northern Colorado W 86-66 95%    
  Dec 21, 2023 210   Utah Tech W 63-46 93%    
  Dec 29, 2023 74   Washington W 78-70 74%    
  Dec 31, 2023 86   Washington St. W 72-63 77%    
  Jan 04, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 76-83 29%    
  Jan 06, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 10, 2024 105   @ California W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 13, 2024 18   USC W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 18, 2024 35   Oregon W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 20, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 73-61 84%    
  Jan 24, 2024 74   @ Washington W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 27, 2024 86   @ Washington St. W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 03, 2024 62   @ Utah W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 08, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 10, 2024 11   Arizona L 79-80 48%    
  Feb 15, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 17, 2024 18   @ USC L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 24, 2024 62   Utah W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 28, 2024 105   California W 72-61 81%    
  Mar 03, 2024 49   Stanford W 74-69 66%    
  Mar 07, 2024 35   @ Oregon L 70-73 42%    
  Mar 09, 2024 118   @ Oregon St. W 70-64 68%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.7 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.3 13.9 1st
2nd 0.3 1.6 3.7 4.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.6 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 3.6 1.0 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.2 7.6 9.3 10.4 10.9 10.8 9.5 8.2 6.8 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.6% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 94.9% 2.3    2.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 79.4% 3.6    2.6 1.0 0.0
16-4 54.5% 3.7    2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.3% 2.1    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 9.0 3.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.4% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.5% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 2.6 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.8% 99.8% 20.4% 79.4% 3.6 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 8.2% 99.1% 16.2% 82.9% 4.9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
14-6 9.5% 94.9% 12.7% 82.2% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.5 94.1%
13-7 10.8% 88.3% 10.4% 77.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.3 86.9%
12-8 10.9% 73.5% 9.3% 64.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.9 70.8%
11-9 10.4% 51.5% 6.5% 45.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 48.2%
10-10 9.3% 31.4% 5.7% 25.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 27.2%
9-11 7.6% 11.4% 4.0% 7.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 7.7%
8-12 6.2% 4.8% 3.7% 1.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 1.1%
7-13 4.7% 2.6% 2.4% 0.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5 0.3%
6-14 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 59.5% 10.5% 49.0% 6.4 3.4 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.0 6.5 4.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 40.5 54.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 73.9 26.1