Preseason Rankings
California
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.6#342
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 11.6% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.9% 9.7% 2.0%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 10.3
.500 or above 32.8% 35.3% 10.7%
.500 or above in Conference 16.9% 18.1% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 28.7% 26.9% 43.8%
First Four2.3% 2.5% 0.6%
First Round9.5% 10.2% 2.6%
Second Round4.3% 4.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 23 - 55 - 14
Quad 33 - 28 - 17
Quad 45 - 113 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 276   St. Thomas W 72-59 90%    
  Nov 10, 2023 188   Pacific W 73-65 76%    
  Nov 13, 2023 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-53 86%    
  Nov 16, 2023 225   Montana St. W 69-59 83%    
  Nov 21, 2023 155   UTEP W 64-61 61%    
  Nov 25, 2023 31   San Diego St. L 58-66 24%    
  Dec 02, 2023 144   Santa Clara W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 09, 2023 88   @ Butler L 60-65 34%    
  Dec 16, 2023 60   Mississippi L 62-67 34%    
  Dec 20, 2023 241   UC San Diego W 71-60 83%    
  Dec 29, 2023 11   Arizona L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 31, 2023 65   Arizona St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 03, 2024 18   @ USC L 60-73 14%    
  Jan 06, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 57-69 15%    
  Jan 10, 2024 33   Colorado L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 13, 2024 35   @ Oregon L 60-70 19%    
  Jan 18, 2024 74   Washington L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 20, 2024 86   Washington St. W 62-61 53%    
  Jan 26, 2024 49   Stanford L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 01, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 65-79 12%    
  Feb 03, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 07, 2024 18   USC L 63-70 29%    
  Feb 10, 2024 19   UCLA L 60-66 30%    
  Feb 15, 2024 86   @ Washington St. L 59-64 34%    
  Feb 17, 2024 74   @ Washington L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 22, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 24, 2024 35   Oregon L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 28, 2024 33   @ Colorado L 61-72 19%    
  Mar 02, 2024 62   @ Utah L 59-67 26%    
  Mar 07, 2024 49   @ Stanford L 61-70 24%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.6 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.6 5.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 15.1 10th
11th 0.3 1.4 3.7 6.1 5.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 19.4 11th
12th 1.2 3.5 5.3 5.5 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 20.1 12th
Total 1.2 3.8 6.7 9.5 11.3 12.0 11.7 10.7 9.1 7.2 5.9 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 85.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 59.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.0% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.6% 98.6% 13.5% 85.1% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
14-6 1.0% 93.0% 10.6% 82.4% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.1%
13-7 1.9% 88.7% 6.9% 81.8% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 87.8%
12-8 2.9% 70.3% 6.8% 63.6% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 68.2%
11-9 4.2% 48.0% 4.5% 43.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 45.5%
10-10 5.9% 25.6% 3.6% 22.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 22.8%
9-11 7.2% 9.9% 3.8% 6.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 6.3%
8-12 9.1% 2.4% 1.7% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.7%
7-13 10.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5 0.1%
6-14 11.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.5
5-15 12.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.9
4-16 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
3-17 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.5
2-18 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
1-19 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 10.7% 1.9% 8.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 89.3 8.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%