Preseason Rankings
Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#269
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#156
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#269
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#262
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 11.6% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 29.9% 59.3% 27.7%
.500 or above in Conference 48.2% 68.1% 46.7%
Conference Champion 6.6% 15.4% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.9% 5.2% 12.4%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round4.9% 11.0% 4.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 410 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 75   @ Syracuse L 64-80 7%    
  Nov 11, 2023 78   @ St. Bonaventure L 60-76 7%    
  Nov 15, 2023 187   @ Cleveland St. L 66-74 23%    
  Nov 24, 2023 242   Wofford L 69-71 44%    
  Nov 25, 2023 172   Western Kentucky L 68-74 30%    
  Nov 26, 2023 235   Bowling Green L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 01, 2023 232   Quinnipiac W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 03, 2023 279   St. Peter's W 65-61 63%    
  Dec 06, 2023 285   Robert Morris W 70-66 63%    
  Dec 09, 2023 69   @ Pittsburgh L 63-80 8%    
  Dec 22, 2023 278   @ High Point L 76-79 41%    
  Jan 05, 2024 250   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 07, 2024 230   @ Rider L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 12, 2024 266   Siena W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 14, 2024 257   Fairfield W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 19, 2024 148   @ Iona L 68-78 20%    
  Jan 21, 2024 279   @ St. Peter's L 62-64 42%    
  Jan 26, 2024 325   Manhattan W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 28, 2024 272   Marist W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 04, 2024 232   @ Quinnipiac L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 06, 2024 258   @ Niagara L 63-67 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 148   Iona L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 16, 2024 272   @ Marist L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 18, 2024 266   @ Siena L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 23, 2024 258   Niagara W 66-64 58%    
  Mar 01, 2024 250   Mount St. Mary's W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 03, 2024 230   Rider W 70-69 52%    
  Mar 07, 2024 257   @ Fairfield L 65-69 39%    
  Mar 09, 2024 325   @ Manhattan W 70-69 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.7 1.2 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 3.3 1.2 0.1 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 7.7 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.2 5.8 7.6 9.2 9.9 10.4 10.1 9.3 8.3 6.7 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 96.3% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-3 89.4% 1.3    1.0 0.2
16-4 67.3% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
15-5 42.3% 1.6    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.0% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 83.2% 82.2% 1.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6%
19-1 0.2% 51.2% 51.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.7% 41.3% 41.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.4% 38.4% 38.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-4 2.5% 27.8% 27.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.8
15-5 3.7% 21.3% 21.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.9
14-6 5.2% 13.8% 13.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 4.5
13-7 6.7% 11.0% 11.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.0
12-8 8.3% 6.9% 6.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.7
11-9 9.3% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.8
10-10 10.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.9
9-11 10.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.2
8-12 9.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.8
7-13 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.2
6-14 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.6
5-15 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
4-16 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%