Preseason Rankings
Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#94
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.8#137
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 2.0% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 17.0% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.6% 6.6% 1.5%
Average Seed 10.5 10.3 11.8
.500 or above 80.7% 85.3% 62.0%
.500 or above in Conference 72.6% 76.0% 58.7%
Conference Champion 12.7% 14.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.8% 4.5%
First Four2.2% 2.5% 1.1%
First Round14.1% 15.8% 7.0%
Second Round5.3% 6.1% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 80.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 6
Quad 37 - 410 - 10
Quad 49 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 187   Cleveland St. W 76-67 80%    
  Nov 10, 2023 80   College of Charleston L 78-79 44%    
  Nov 13, 2023 255   Stony Brook W 75-62 89%    
  Nov 15, 2023 130   Princeton W 76-70 70%    
  Nov 17, 2023 230   Rider W 77-65 86%    
  Nov 22, 2023 67   @ Nebraska L 69-75 30%    
  Nov 29, 2023 97   UC Irvine W 75-72 62%    
  Dec 06, 2023 135   @ Marshall W 80-79 50%    
  Dec 08, 2023 279   St. Peter's W 72-57 90%    
  Dec 18, 2023 100   Bradley W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 23, 2023 144   Santa Clara W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 03, 2024 192   @ Massachusetts W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 06, 2024 96   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 12, 2024 72   Dayton W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 16, 2024 129   Richmond W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 136   @ Saint Joseph's W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 23, 2024 78   St. Bonaventure W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 27, 2024 162   Fordham W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 31, 2024 324   Chicago St. W 80-62 93%    
  Feb 03, 2024 190   @ Rhode Island W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 07, 2024 149   Davidson W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 10, 2024 78   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 13, 2024 72   @ Dayton L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 136   Saint Joseph's W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 20, 2024 102   Saint Louis W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 23, 2024 162   @ Fordham W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 28, 2024 199   La Salle W 78-68 78%    
  Mar 02, 2024 139   @ George Mason W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 05, 2024 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 69-73 36%    
  Mar 09, 2024 238   George Washington W 83-71 84%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 3.7 2.8 1.4 0.3 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.2 1.2 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.3 2.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.1 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.1 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.1 5.0 7.0 8.8 10.6 11.7 12.0 11.2 9.5 7.6 5.1 3.1 1.4 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.3% 1.4    1.4 0.1
16-2 91.5% 2.8    2.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 72.3% 3.7    2.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 40.2% 3.1    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.5% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.8 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 95.6% 49.0% 46.6% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.3%
17-1 1.4% 88.9% 40.9% 48.1% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 81.3%
16-2 3.1% 74.0% 32.2% 41.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 61.6%
15-3 5.1% 52.7% 27.3% 25.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 35.0%
14-4 7.6% 32.0% 18.9% 13.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 16.2%
13-5 9.5% 19.7% 14.6% 5.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.6 5.9%
12-6 11.2% 11.7% 10.9% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.0%
11-7 12.0% 9.3% 9.2% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.1%
10-8 11.7% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.0%
9-9 10.6% 4.8% 4.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.1
8-10 8.8% 3.2% 3.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5
7-11 7.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
6-12 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
5-13 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.1% 10.1% 5.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.7 3.7 3.3 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 84.9 5.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 10.6 33.7 31.7 16.3 7.7