Preseason Rankings
Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#102
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.3#71
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 12.2% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.9% 4.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 13.0
.500 or above 69.8% 71.1% 36.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.2% 65.1% 42.4%
Conference Champion 9.0% 9.3% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 3.5% 10.0%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 0.3%
First Round11.0% 11.3% 3.5%
Second Round3.8% 3.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 47 - 116 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 344   Southern Indiana W 87-68 96%    
  Nov 11, 2023 209   Illinois St. W 76-67 81%    
  Nov 16, 2023 163   Wyoming W 75-71 63%    
  Nov 25, 2023 243   Dartmouth W 81-70 85%    
  Nov 28, 2023 83   Utah St. W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 02, 2023 171   @ Southern Illinois W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 06, 2023 70   @ Drake L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 09, 2023 112   Hofstra W 77-74 62%    
  Dec 16, 2023 120   Louisiana Tech W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 20, 2023 61   @ North Carolina St. L 74-82 25%    
  Jan 03, 2024 96   Loyola Chicago W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 06, 2024 139   @ George Mason L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 10, 2024 136   Saint Joseph's W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 16, 2024 72   @ Dayton L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 19, 2024 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 24, 2024 149   Davidson W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 27, 2024 192   Massachusetts W 82-74 75%    
  Jan 30, 2024 96   @ Loyola Chicago L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 03, 2024 162   Fordham W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 07, 2024 199   @ La Salle W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 10, 2024 136   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 16, 2024 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 20, 2024 94   @ Duquesne L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 24, 2024 238   George Washington W 84-73 82%    
  Feb 28, 2024 129   Richmond W 74-69 66%    
  Mar 02, 2024 190   @ Rhode Island W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 05, 2024 72   Dayton L 67-68 50%    
  Mar 09, 2024 78   @ St. Bonaventure L 68-74 32%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.2 9.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.0 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.6 1.4 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.3 3.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.1 0.2 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.5 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.0 0.1 4.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 15th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.7 6.7 8.3 10.3 11.3 11.6 11.0 9.9 8.0 5.9 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.8% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 92.5% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 73.5% 2.6    1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.2% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.4% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 95.5% 51.5% 44.0% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.7%
17-1 0.9% 89.5% 38.2% 51.3% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 82.9%
16-2 2.0% 74.4% 32.1% 42.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 62.3%
15-3 3.5% 49.9% 26.4% 23.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 31.8%
14-4 5.9% 34.2% 19.7% 14.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.9 18.1%
13-5 8.0% 19.7% 14.9% 4.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.4 5.6%
12-6 9.9% 12.3% 11.1% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.7 1.3%
11-7 11.0% 9.2% 8.8% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.3%
10-8 11.6% 5.5% 5.5% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9
9-9 11.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.7
8-10 10.3% 3.0% 3.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.0
7-11 8.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.1
6-12 6.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.6
5-13 4.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.8% 8.3% 3.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 88.2 3.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.3 23.0 31.0 36.8 9.2