Preseason Rankings
Furman
Southern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#104
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#126
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#175
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.3% 36.4% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.5% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 13.2
.500 or above 89.1% 93.5% 80.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 94.6% 89.3%
Conference Champion 39.7% 44.2% 30.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round31.9% 35.9% 23.6%
Second Round6.9% 8.4% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.4% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 36 - 7
Quad 412 - 217 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 128   Belmont W 80-75 67%    
  Nov 16, 2023 84   Liberty L 69-71 42%    
  Nov 25, 2023 77   @ UAB L 76-82 30%    
  Nov 28, 2023 345   South Carolina St. W 90-71 95%    
  Dec 02, 2023 130   @ Princeton L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 04, 2023 17   @ Arkansas L 70-83 13%    
  Dec 14, 2023 99   @ Tulane L 80-84 38%    
  Dec 19, 2023 322   Presbyterian W 77-61 92%    
  Jan 03, 2024 119   @ UNC Greensboro L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 06, 2024 197   @ Chattanooga W 77-75 59%    
  Jan 10, 2024 320   The Citadel W 82-66 91%    
  Jan 13, 2024 239   East Tennessee St. W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 17, 2024 351   @ VMI W 81-67 88%    
  Jan 20, 2024 205   Western Carolina W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 24, 2024 165   Samford W 80-73 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 242   @ Wofford W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 31, 2024 320   @ The Citadel W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 04, 2024 119   UNC Greensboro W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 07, 2024 237   @ Mercer W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 10, 2024 239   @ East Tennessee St. W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 14, 2024 351   VMI W 84-64 95%    
  Feb 18, 2024 197   Chattanooga W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 21, 2024 165   @ Samford W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 24, 2024 242   Wofford W 79-68 82%    
  Feb 28, 2024 205   @ Western Carolina W 77-74 60%    
  Mar 02, 2024 237   Mercer W 75-64 82%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.6 10.2 10.0 7.0 2.8 39.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.8 6.9 6.3 3.1 0.6 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.2 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.5 0.8 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.9 7.1 9.5 11.2 12.8 13.7 13.4 10.6 7.0 2.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.8    2.8
17-1 100.0% 7.0    6.9 0.1
16-2 94.4% 10.0    8.8 1.2
15-3 76.5% 10.2    7.2 2.8 0.2
14-4 48.5% 6.6    3.3 2.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 20.4% 2.6    0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.7% 39.7 29.7 8.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.8% 83.6% 74.4% 9.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 35.9%
17-1 7.0% 69.9% 65.9% 4.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 2.1 11.9%
16-2 10.6% 58.0% 56.7% 1.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.4 3.0%
15-3 13.4% 45.7% 45.5% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.4 1.0 0.1 7.3 0.3%
14-4 13.7% 35.3% 35.3% 13.2 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.9
13-5 12.8% 27.1% 27.1% 13.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 9.3
12-6 11.2% 18.6% 18.6% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.1 9.1
11-7 9.5% 13.4% 13.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 8.2
10-8 7.1% 9.4% 9.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 6.5
9-9 4.9% 6.4% 6.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.5
8-10 3.3% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.2
7-11 1.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 1.9
6-12 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.3% 31.6% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 4.0 8.0 8.3 5.7 2.8 1.1 67.7 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 8.8 12.1 30.6 20.2 19.2 6.4 2.7