Preseason Rankings
Arkansas
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#17
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.8#59
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.4%
#1 Seed 8.0% 8.1% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 16.8% 17.0% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 33.8% 34.2% 7.8%
Top 6 Seed 48.5% 48.9% 15.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.7% 74.1% 44.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.7% 71.2% 40.8%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 7.4
.500 or above 89.7% 90.1% 61.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.3% 74.6% 48.0%
Conference Champion 13.9% 14.1% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.1% 8.8%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 5.2%
First Round71.8% 72.2% 41.5%
Second Round53.0% 53.4% 25.2%
Sweet Sixteen29.3% 29.5% 11.9%
Elite Eight15.1% 15.3% 4.8%
Final Four7.7% 7.7% 1.8%
Championship Game3.6% 3.7% 0.4%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 210 - 8
Quad 35 - 115 - 9
Quad 45 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 84-61 99%    
  Nov 10, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 79-61 95%    
  Nov 13, 2023 180   Old Dominion W 77-60 95%    
  Nov 17, 2023 119   UNC Greensboro W 77-63 90%    
  Nov 22, 2023 49   Stanford W 75-71 64%    
  Nov 29, 2023 3   Duke L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 04, 2023 104   Furman W 83-70 87%    
  Dec 09, 2023 53   Oklahoma W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 16, 2023 184   Lipscomb W 86-68 93%    
  Dec 21, 2023 168   Abilene Christian W 84-67 92%    
  Dec 30, 2023 140   UNC Wilmington W 78-63 90%    
  Jan 06, 2024 23   Auburn W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 10, 2024 73   @ Georgia W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 13, 2024 36   @ Florida L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 16, 2024 22   Texas A&M W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 20, 2024 89   South Carolina W 75-64 82%    
  Jan 24, 2024 60   @ Mississippi W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 13   Kentucky W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 31, 2024 52   @ Missouri W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 56   @ LSU W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 10, 2024 73   Georgia W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 14, 2024 7   Tennessee W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 17, 2024 37   @ Mississippi St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 20, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 24, 2024 52   Missouri W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 27, 2024 87   Vanderbilt W 79-68 82%    
  Mar 02, 2024 13   @ Kentucky L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 06, 2024 56   LSU W 75-67 74%    
  Mar 09, 2024 12   @ Alabama L 78-82 36%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 4.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.4 3.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.7 0.9 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.2 1.2 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.8 8.0 10.3 11.3 11.7 11.3 10.1 8.0 6.2 3.4 1.5 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.6% 1.5    1.4 0.1
16-2 89.3% 3.1    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 69.6% 4.3    2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 38.7% 3.1    1.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.5% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 8.4 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 41.1% 58.9% 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.4% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1.5 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.2% 99.9% 21.1% 78.8% 1.9 2.3 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 8.0% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.6 1.5 2.5 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.1% 99.9% 13.0% 86.9% 3.6 0.5 1.7 2.8 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 11.3% 99.0% 11.3% 87.7% 4.9 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-7 11.7% 95.6% 8.9% 86.6% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.5 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 95.1%
10-8 11.3% 88.4% 7.3% 81.1% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.3 87.5%
9-9 10.3% 70.4% 5.3% 65.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 68.7%
8-10 8.0% 39.5% 5.0% 34.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 36.3%
7-11 6.8% 14.3% 3.7% 10.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 11.0%
6-12 4.7% 4.3% 3.0% 1.4% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 1.4%
5-13 3.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.1%
4-14 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-16 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 73.7% 10.1% 63.6% 5.3 8.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 7.5 7.1 6.5 5.4 4.7 4.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 26.3 70.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.7 11.3