Preseason Rankings
UAB
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#77
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.4#29
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.6% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 4.1% 5.3% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 24.2% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.3% 15.4% 5.5%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 10.2
.500 or above 79.7% 86.2% 65.0%
.500 or above in Conference 71.1% 76.0% 60.1%
Conference Champion 9.9% 11.7% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.4% 3.6%
First Four3.8% 4.4% 2.3%
First Round18.4% 22.0% 10.2%
Second Round8.8% 10.7% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 4.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 37 - 311 - 10
Quad 47 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 100   Bradley W 74-69 69%    
  Nov 10, 2023 45   Clemson L 75-78 38%    
  Nov 16, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 83-67 93%    
  Nov 21, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee W 75-73 57%    
  Nov 25, 2023 104   Furman W 82-76 70%    
  Nov 28, 2023 271   McNeese St. W 84-68 92%    
  Dec 01, 2023 152   Southern Miss W 81-72 78%    
  Dec 09, 2023 198   @ Arkansas St. W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 13, 2023 338   @ Alabama A&M W 82-67 90%    
  Dec 22, 2023 70   Drake W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 29, 2023 170   UNC Asheville W 81-71 80%    
  Jan 02, 2024 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 83-74 77%    
  Jan 07, 2024 145   South Florida W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 14, 2024 25   @ Florida Atlantic L 72-81 23%    
  Jan 17, 2024 99   Tulane W 86-81 67%    
  Jan 20, 2024 146   East Carolina W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 23, 2024 156   @ Charlotte W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 28, 2024 27   Memphis L 80-83 41%    
  Jan 31, 2024 90   @ North Texas L 61-63 44%    
  Feb 04, 2024 101   @ SMU L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 08, 2024 25   Florida Atlantic L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 11, 2024 233   @ Tulsa W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 18, 2024 90   North Texas W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 21, 2024 178   Rice W 86-76 80%    
  Feb 25, 2024 99   @ Tulane L 83-84 47%    
  Feb 28, 2024 95   Wichita St. W 75-70 65%    
  Mar 03, 2024 27   @ Memphis L 77-86 24%    
  Mar 07, 2024 138   @ Temple W 74-72 56%    
  Mar 10, 2024 101   SMU W 80-74 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.0 2.5 1.2 0.3 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.9 3.7 1.7 0.3 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.9 4.1 1.1 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.1 1.0 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.0 1.2 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 4.1 1.5 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.7 2.5 0.4 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.5 5.2 7.3 9.3 10.8 11.5 12.0 11.4 9.6 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 90.3% 2.5    2.0 0.5 0.0
15-3 63.1% 3.0    1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.4% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1
13-5 7.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.9 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 43.7% 56.3% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 97.6% 44.0% 53.6% 3.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.6%
16-2 2.7% 90.9% 31.1% 59.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 86.8%
15-3 4.7% 78.3% 21.5% 56.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 72.3%
14-4 7.0% 57.8% 19.2% 38.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 47.8%
13-5 9.6% 34.4% 13.0% 21.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 24.6%
12-6 11.4% 20.8% 11.6% 9.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.0 10.3%
11-7 12.0% 10.1% 8.1% 2.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8 2.2%
10-8 11.5% 5.8% 5.3% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.5%
9-9 10.8% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.0%
8-10 9.3% 3.2% 3.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.0
7-11 7.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1
6-12 5.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.2
5-13 3.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.5
4-14 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.3% 9.1% 11.2% 9.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.9 3.1 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 79.7 12.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 37.1 47.2 6.2 5.1 4.5