IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
George Mason
Atlantic 10
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.9	#139
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.3	#223
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.3	#188

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.2	#108

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.7%	6.1%	2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.1%	1.3%	0.2%
Average Seed	12.0	11.9	13.3

.500 or above	61.2%	64.6%	34.0%
.500 or above in Conference	54.0%	56.3%	35.7%
Conference Champion	6.3%	6.8%	2.5%
Last Place in Conference	7.2%	6.3%	14.5%

First Four	0.8%	0.8%	0.5%
First Round	5.3%	5.7%	2.1%
Second Round	1.4%	1.5%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 88.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 3	6 - 5	7 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 2	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	311	Monmouth	W	75-62	89%
Nov 10, 2023	236	Austin Peay	W	71-62	79%
Nov 15, 2023	157	Cornell	W	78-74	65%
Nov 19, 2023	156	Charlotte	W	62-61	54%
Nov 25, 2023	146	East Carolina	W	70-67	61%
Nov 29, 2023	339	NJIT	W	75-59	92%
Dec 02, 2023	132	@ Toledo	L	73-76	38%
Dec 05, 2023	7	@ Tennessee	L	56-73	6%
Dec 16, 2023	295	Loyola Maryland	W	73-61	85%
Dec 22, 2023	99	@ Tulane	L	73-79	31%
Dec 30, 2023	352	N.C. A&T	W	80-62	93%
Jan 03, 2024	199	@ La Salle	W	70-69	51%
Jan 06, 2024	102	Saint Louis	W	72-71	53%
Jan 09, 2024	82	Virginia Commonwealth	L	66-68	45%
Jan 13, 2024	129	@ Richmond	L	64-68	38%
Jan 15, 2024	238	@ George Washington	W	74-71	59%
Jan 20, 2024	78	St. Bonaventure	L	65-67	44%
Jan 27, 2024	190	Rhode Island	W	70-64	69%
Jan 31, 2024	136	@ Saint Joseph's	L	69-72	40%
Feb 03, 2024	192	@ Massachusetts	L	72-73	50%
Feb 07, 2024	96	Loyola Chicago	L	66-67	50%
Feb 10, 2024	149	@ Davidson	L	65-67	42%
Feb 13, 2024	238	George Washington	W	77-68	77%
Feb 21, 2024	72	Dayton	L	61-64	42%
Feb 24, 2024	96	@ Loyola Chicago	L	64-70	30%
Feb 27, 2024	162	@ Fordham	L	68-70	44%
Mar 02, 2024	94	Duquesne	L	70-71	49%
Mar 06, 2024	190	@ Rhode Island	L	66-67	50%
Mar 09, 2024	129	Richmond	W	67-65	58%
Projected Record						16 - 13	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.7	1.7	1.8	1.2	0.6	0.1		6.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.2	2.5	2.0	0.7	0.1				6.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.2	3.2	2.3	0.6	0.0					7.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.2	2.7	0.5	0.0						7.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.8	3.5	0.7	0.1							7.4	5th
6th									0.1	1.9	4.0	1.3	0.1								7.4	6th
7th								0.0	1.0	4.1	2.2	0.2	0.0								7.5	7th
8th							0.0	0.4	3.3	3.4	0.5	0.0									7.6	8th
9th							0.1	1.8	3.9	1.2	0.0										7.1	9th
10th						0.0	1.1	3.9	2.1	0.2											7.3	10th
11th					0.0	0.5	2.9	2.9	0.5												6.8	11th
12th				0.0	0.4	2.1	3.0	0.9	0.0												6.4	12th
13th			0.0	0.2	1.6	2.7	1.2	0.1													5.8	13th
14th		0.0	0.3	1.3	2.1	1.2	0.2	0.0													5.0	14th
15th	0.2	0.7	1.2	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0														4.3	15th

Total	0.2	0.7	1.5	2.8	4.8	6.7	8.5	10.0	10.9	11.1	10.3	9.5	8.0	6.1	4.3	2.6	1.4	0.6	0.1		Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.6		0.6	0.0
16-2	90.0%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
15-3	70.2%	1.8		1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-4	39.0%	1.7		0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	11.7%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.3%	6.3		3.5	1.9	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		90.2%	43.8%	46.4%	5.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		82.5%
17-1	0.6%		64.9%	29.8%	35.1%	8.2			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		50.0%
16-2	1.4%		46.1%	19.7%	26.4%	9.7					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.7		32.9%
15-3	2.6%		26.3%	16.8%	9.5%	11.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0			1.9		11.4%
14-4	4.3%		18.3%	14.5%	3.8%	11.6										0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		3.5		4.4%
13-5	6.1%		11.9%	11.2%	0.8%	12.3											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		5.4		0.9%
12-6	8.0%		8.2%	8.1%	0.1%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0		7.3		0.1%
11-7	9.5%		5.3%	5.3%		13.2												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		9.0
10-8	10.3%		3.7%	3.7%		13.7													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	10.0
9-9	11.1%		3.0%	3.0%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.8
8-10	10.9%		2.2%	2.2%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.7
7-11	10.0%		1.0%	1.0%		15.8																0.0	0.1	9.9
6-12	8.5%		0.7%	0.7%		15.9																0.0	0.1	8.4
5-13	6.7%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
4-14	4.8%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	4.8
3-15	2.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
2-16	1.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
1-17	0.7%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.7%	4.6%	1.1%	12.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.0	1.3	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.3	94.3		1.1%