Preseason Rankings
Rutgers
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#51
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#253
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.5% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 4.1% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 9.1% 10.9% 3.6%
Top 6 Seed 17.2% 20.5% 7.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.3% 45.7% 23.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.6% 42.9% 21.7%
Average Seed 6.9 6.8 7.8
.500 or above 66.5% 73.2% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 41.9% 46.4% 28.2%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.6% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 7.4% 15.3%
First Four4.2% 4.3% 3.7%
First Round38.3% 43.6% 22.0%
Second Round23.3% 26.9% 12.3%
Sweet Sixteen10.3% 12.1% 4.7%
Elite Eight4.5% 5.4% 1.9%
Final Four1.8% 2.2% 0.6%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Princeton (Neutral) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 46 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 130   Princeton W 71-64 75%    
  Nov 10, 2023 313   Boston University W 74-53 98%    
  Nov 12, 2023 208   Bryant W 81-66 91%    
  Nov 15, 2023 106   Georgetown W 74-65 78%    
  Nov 18, 2023 247   Howard W 79-62 94%    
  Nov 27, 2023 279   St. Peter's W 69-50 95%    
  Dec 02, 2023 21   Illinois L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 06, 2023 64   @ Wake Forest L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 09, 2023 66   @ Seton Hall L 64-66 45%    
  Dec 16, 2023 359   LIU Brooklyn W 86-59 99%    
  Dec 23, 2023 37   Mississippi St. L 60-62 45%    
  Dec 30, 2023 350   Stonehill W 78-53 98%    
  Jan 03, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 64-69 35%    
  Jan 06, 2024 42   @ Iowa L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 09, 2024 39   Indiana W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 14, 2024 5   @ Michigan St. L 60-70 20%    
  Jan 17, 2024 67   Nebraska W 69-64 65%    
  Jan 21, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 66-73 29%    
  Jan 28, 2024 2   Purdue L 61-67 31%    
  Jan 31, 2024 76   Penn St. W 67-61 68%    
  Feb 03, 2024 48   @ Michigan L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 06, 2024 29   @ Maryland L 61-67 31%    
  Feb 10, 2024 28   Wisconsin W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 15, 2024 47   Northwestern W 65-62 58%    
  Feb 18, 2024 113   @ Minnesota W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 22, 2024 2   @ Purdue L 58-70 16%    
  Feb 25, 2024 29   Maryland W 64-63 50%    
  Feb 29, 2024 48   Michigan W 69-66 59%    
  Mar 03, 2024 67   @ Nebraska L 66-67 45%    
  Mar 07, 2024 28   @ Wisconsin L 58-64 31%    
  Mar 10, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 67-66 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.3 0.7 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 1.4 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.4 1.1 0.1 9.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 3.1 1.2 0.1 8.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 13th
14th 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.6 14th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.2 7.3 8.7 9.9 10.8 10.3 9.7 8.8 7.6 5.8 4.3 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 92.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 74.3% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 51.7% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.6% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 2.6 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.6% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 3.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.3% 99.8% 10.2% 89.7% 4.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 5.8% 98.1% 8.1% 89.9% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.9%
12-8 7.6% 93.2% 7.1% 86.1% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 92.7%
11-9 8.8% 80.0% 5.3% 74.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 1.8 78.9%
10-10 9.7% 61.6% 4.4% 57.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 59.8%
9-11 10.3% 28.3% 4.1% 24.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 25.3%
8-12 10.8% 9.2% 2.1% 7.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 7.3%
7-13 9.9% 2.9% 1.9% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6 1.0%
6-14 8.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.6
5-15 7.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.2
4-16 5.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-17 3.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-18 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-19 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 40.3% 4.4% 35.9% 6.9 1.2 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.0 4.3 4.7 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 59.7 37.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0