Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#115
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.9#78
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#127
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 23.9% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 2.5% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.2 11.7 12.9
.500 or above 78.5% 88.8% 70.5%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 86.5% 75.4%
Conference Champion 22.6% 29.1% 17.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.2% 3.3%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round17.8% 23.2% 13.6%
Second Round4.4% 6.5% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.0% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 410 - 217 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 71-73 44%    
  Nov 13, 2023 337   @ Northwestern St. W 78-67 85%    
  Nov 19, 2023 116   Loyola Marymount W 75-74 51%    
  Nov 29, 2023 214   Tarleton St. W 75-66 78%    
  Dec 02, 2023 168   @ Abilene Christian W 76-75 50%    
  Dec 05, 2023 120   Louisiana Tech W 74-70 62%    
  Dec 09, 2023 163   @ Wyoming L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 19, 2023 167   New Mexico St. W 78-72 69%    
  Dec 29, 2023 299   New Orleans W 86-72 88%    
  Jan 04, 2024 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-77 69%    
  Jan 06, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 11, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech W 57-55 58%    
  Jan 13, 2024 226   @ Southern Utah W 82-78 62%    
  Jan 18, 2024 126   Seattle W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 25, 2024 93   Grand Canyon W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 27, 2024 186   California Baptist W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 01, 2024 164   Utah Valley W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 03, 2024 214   @ Tarleton St. W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 08, 2024 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 86-74 84%    
  Feb 10, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 168   Abilene Christian W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 22, 2024 126   @ Seattle L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 24, 2024 164   @ Utah Valley L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 29, 2024 186   @ California Baptist W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 02, 2024 93   @ Grand Canyon L 68-73 34%    
  Mar 07, 2024 226   Southern Utah W 85-75 79%    
  Mar 09, 2024 210   Utah Tech W 60-52 75%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 5.3 5.1 4.0 1.9 0.6 22.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.9 5.2 4.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.1 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.9 6.0 8.0 9.8 10.3 10.9 10.5 9.5 8.4 6.2 4.1 1.9 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
18-2 96.7% 4.0    3.7 0.3
17-3 82.4% 5.1    4.1 1.0 0.0
16-4 63.9% 5.3    3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 38.1% 3.6    1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 15.2% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.6% 22.6 15.7 5.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 92.5% 69.8% 22.7% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.1%
19-1 1.9% 76.0% 58.2% 17.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 42.6%
18-2 4.1% 58.3% 49.1% 9.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 18.0%
17-3 6.2% 42.1% 38.9% 3.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 5.3%
16-4 8.4% 31.3% 30.9% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 0.7%
15-5 9.5% 24.4% 24.3% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.1 0.1%
14-6 10.5% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.0%
13-7 10.9% 14.8% 14.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.3
12-8 10.3% 10.4% 10.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 9.3
11-9 9.8% 7.1% 7.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.1
10-10 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.6
9-11 6.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.8
8-12 4.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.7
7-13 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-14 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.3% 17.2% 1.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.8 5.0 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.8 81.7 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 98.2% 3.9 9.2 6.5 20.6 34.3 11.9 8.3 7.0 0.4