Preseason Rankings
Xavier
Big East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#43
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.0#35
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 5.1% 5.3% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 13.3% 13.6% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 23.3% 23.7% 6.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.6% 50.4% 21.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.8% 46.6% 18.8%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 7.9
.500 or above 75.5% 76.4% 42.4%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 57.8% 32.4%
Conference Champion 6.3% 6.4% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 5.1% 13.3%
First Four5.0% 5.0% 3.8%
First Round47.2% 47.9% 19.4%
Second Round30.2% 30.7% 11.5%
Sweet Sixteen13.9% 14.2% 3.3%
Elite Eight6.1% 6.2% 1.2%
Final Four2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 11
Quad 34 - 112 - 12
Quad 45 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 285   Robert Morris W 83-63 97%    
  Nov 10, 2023 246   Jacksonville W 75-57 96%    
  Nov 13, 2023 2   @ Purdue L 67-78 16%    
  Nov 18, 2023 74   Washington W 79-76 61%    
  Nov 24, 2023 208   Bryant W 92-76 92%    
  Nov 27, 2023 256   Oakland W 88-69 95%    
  Dec 01, 2023 4   Houston L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 05, 2023 194   Delaware W 83-68 90%    
  Dec 09, 2023 58   Cincinnati W 79-75 65%    
  Dec 16, 2023 189   Winthrop W 85-71 89%    
  Dec 20, 2023 44   @ St. John's L 83-86 41%    
  Dec 23, 2023 66   Seton Hall W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 03, 2024 20   @ Villanova L 69-75 32%    
  Jan 10, 2024 6   Connecticut L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 13, 2024 46   @ Providence L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 16, 2024 88   Butler W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 19, 2024 106   Georgetown W 84-74 79%    
  Jan 23, 2024 8   @ Creighton L 73-81 24%    
  Jan 28, 2024 6   @ Connecticut L 71-80 23%    
  Jan 31, 2024 44   St. John's W 86-83 61%    
  Feb 03, 2024 109   @ DePaul W 81-77 62%    
  Feb 07, 2024 20   Villanova W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 10, 2024 8   Creighton L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 14, 2024 66   @ Seton Hall L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 21, 2024 46   Providence W 78-74 61%    
  Feb 25, 2024 9   @ Marquette L 75-83 25%    
  Feb 28, 2024 109   DePaul W 84-74 79%    
  Mar 02, 2024 106   @ Georgetown W 81-77 61%    
  Mar 06, 2024 88   @ Butler W 73-71 56%    
  Mar 09, 2024 9   Marquette L 78-80 43%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.1 4.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.5 5.9 7.6 9.3 10.1 10.8 10.4 9.8 8.2 6.7 4.9 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.8% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 81.4% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 52.6% 1.6    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.8% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.1% 100.0% 21.0% 78.9% 2.9 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.9% 99.8% 15.0% 84.7% 3.9 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 6.7% 99.0% 12.9% 86.1% 5.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
13-7 8.2% 96.3% 10.0% 86.4% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.9%
12-8 9.8% 86.7% 8.1% 78.6% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.3 85.6%
11-9 10.4% 71.1% 6.9% 64.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 69.0%
10-10 10.8% 46.2% 4.9% 41.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.8 43.4%
9-11 10.1% 19.4% 4.4% 15.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 15.7%
8-12 9.3% 6.2% 2.7% 3.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.7 3.6%
7-13 7.6% 2.5% 2.2% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 0.4%
6-14 5.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.8
5-15 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.5
4-16 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-18 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 49.6% 7.0% 42.6% 6.7 2.1 3.0 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 50.4 45.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.1 12.9