Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#58
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.8#113
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.7% 7.1% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 13.3% 13.9% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.7% 35.9% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.3% 33.5% 13.2%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 8.7
.500 or above 75.3% 77.1% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 39.5% 40.7% 20.5%
Conference Champion 2.3% 2.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 12.2% 26.2%
First Four4.5% 4.5% 3.0%
First Round32.5% 33.8% 12.8%
Second Round19.3% 20.1% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen8.3% 8.7% 1.7%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.7% 0.7%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 36 - 11
Quad 35 - 111 - 12
Quad 48 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 244   Illinois-Chicago W 82-65 94%    
  Nov 10, 2023 265   Detroit Mercy W 84-66 95%    
  Nov 12, 2023 169   Eastern Washington W 81-69 86%    
  Nov 19, 2023 183   Northern Kentucky W 72-59 88%    
  Nov 22, 2023 98   Georgia Tech W 75-68 75%    
  Nov 28, 2023 247   @ Howard W 81-70 83%    
  Dec 03, 2023 159   Florida Gulf Coast W 78-66 84%    
  Dec 09, 2023 43   @ Xavier L 75-79 35%    
  Dec 12, 2023 208   Bryant W 86-72 89%    
  Dec 16, 2023 72   Dayton W 68-63 66%    
  Dec 19, 2023 330   Merrimack W 77-55 97%    
  Dec 22, 2023 207   Stetson W 79-65 89%    
  Dec 29, 2023 329   Evansville W 84-62 97%    
  Jan 06, 2024 50   @ BYU L 73-77 38%    
  Jan 09, 2024 15   Texas L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 13, 2024 14   @ Baylor L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 16, 2024 24   TCU L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 20, 2024 53   Oklahoma W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 22, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 68-81 13%    
  Jan 27, 2024 81   Central Florida W 71-65 67%    
  Jan 31, 2024 63   @ West Virginia L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 03, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 10, 2024 4   Houston L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 13, 2024 40   Iowa St. W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 17, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 21, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 24, 2024 24   @ TCU L 71-78 29%    
  Feb 27, 2024 4   @ Houston L 62-73 19%    
  Mar 02, 2024 32   Kansas St. W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 05, 2024 53   @ Oklahoma L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 09, 2024 63   West Virginia W 76-72 62%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.3 0.1 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.9 0.9 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.2 1.4 0.1 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.8 13th
14th 0.4 1.1 2.4 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.0 14th
Total 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.2 7.4 9.7 10.6 11.4 11.6 10.7 8.9 7.3 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 83.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 63.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 32.9% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.1% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 3.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.5% 99.3% 10.6% 88.7% 4.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-6 5.4% 97.3% 8.7% 88.6% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.1%
11-7 7.3% 90.3% 6.5% 83.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 89.7%
10-8 8.9% 74.2% 4.8% 69.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.3 72.9%
9-9 10.7% 49.7% 3.8% 45.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.1 5.4 47.7%
8-10 11.6% 21.9% 2.8% 19.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.1 19.7%
7-11 11.4% 6.9% 2.1% 4.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 4.9%
6-12 10.6% 2.2% 1.8% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.4%
5-13 9.7% 1.1% 1.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6
4-14 7.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
3-15 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.1
2-16 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
1-17 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 34.7% 3.6% 31.1% 7.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.7 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 65.3 32.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 75.9 24.1