Preseason Rankings
Houston
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.8#4
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.8#341
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.6% 4.6% 0.6%
#1 Seed 17.6% 17.7% 2.7%
Top 2 Seed 32.5% 32.7% 5.4%
Top 4 Seed 53.8% 54.0% 17.7%
Top 6 Seed 67.6% 67.8% 30.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.5% 86.6% 62.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.1% 84.3% 59.1%
Average Seed 4.2 4.2 6.5
.500 or above 97.2% 97.3% 80.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 85.8% 62.1%
Conference Champion 23.7% 23.8% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 1.0% 6.2%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 6.3%
First Round85.3% 85.5% 58.8%
Second Round70.3% 70.5% 41.8%
Sweet Sixteen45.6% 45.8% 19.9%
Elite Eight27.4% 27.5% 8.6%
Final Four15.8% 15.9% 4.7%
Championship Game8.8% 8.8% 1.8%
National Champion4.8% 4.8% 0.7%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 25 - 111 - 7
Quad 35 - 015 - 7
Quad 47 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 287   Louisiana Monroe W 78-51 99%    
  Nov 11, 2023 283   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 81-55 99%    
  Nov 13, 2023 207   Stetson W 78-56 98%    
  Nov 16, 2023 158   Towson W 71-55 93%    
  Nov 24, 2023 181   Montana W 74-54 97%    
  Dec 01, 2023 43   @ Xavier W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 06, 2023 178   Rice W 81-61 96%    
  Dec 09, 2023 245   Jackson St. W 78-54 98%    
  Dec 16, 2023 22   Texas A&M W 67-63 62%    
  Dec 21, 2023 193   Texas St. W 72-51 96%    
  Dec 30, 2023 203   Penn W 78-56 97%    
  Jan 06, 2024 63   West Virginia W 73-62 83%    
  Jan 09, 2024 40   @ Iowa St. W 62-59 60%    
  Jan 13, 2024 24   @ TCU W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 17, 2024 41   Texas Tech W 70-61 78%    
  Jan 20, 2024 81   Central Florida W 69-56 87%    
  Jan 23, 2024 50   @ BYU W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 32   Kansas St. W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 29, 2024 15   @ Texas L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 03, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 06, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 70-59 81%    
  Feb 10, 2024 58   @ Cincinnati W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 17, 2024 15   Texas W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 19, 2024 40   Iowa St. W 65-56 77%    
  Feb 24, 2024 14   @ Baylor L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 27, 2024 58   Cincinnati W 73-62 81%    
  Mar 02, 2024 53   @ Oklahoma W 66-62 64%    
  Mar 06, 2024 81   @ Central Florida W 66-59 72%    
  Mar 09, 2024 1   Kansas W 69-68 52%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.4 6.7 6.1 3.6 1.2 23.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.8 5.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.1 4.4 1.5 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.7 1.0 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.9 5.5 7.5 9.1 11.2 12.2 12.8 11.8 9.6 6.6 3.6 1.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.7% 3.6    3.4 0.1
16-2 91.7% 6.1    5.0 1.1 0.0
15-3 69.4% 6.7    4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.2% 4.4    1.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.3% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.7% 23.7 15.7 6.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 100.0% 48.3% 51.7% 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.6% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.2 3.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.6% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.3 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.6% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 1.7 4.5 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.8% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2.3 3.0 4.6 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.8% 99.9% 15.4% 84.6% 3.1 1.2 3.0 4.0 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 12.2% 99.3% 12.4% 87.0% 4.4 0.2 0.9 2.5 3.3 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 11.2% 97.6% 10.6% 87.0% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.3%
10-8 9.1% 91.8% 8.7% 83.2% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 91.0%
9-9 7.5% 77.8% 7.5% 70.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 76.0%
8-10 5.5% 47.7% 5.8% 41.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.9 44.5%
7-11 3.9% 19.9% 4.0% 15.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 16.6%
6-12 2.3% 4.5% 2.8% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.8%
5-13 1.3% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.3%
4-14 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 86.5% 14.7% 71.7% 4.2 17.6 14.9 11.4 9.9 7.5 6.3 5.3 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 84.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.1 0.5